Watch That Hurricane

Hurricane Cindy, which poohed out last week on the South Carolina coast, was not much of a storm, but it left the U.S. Weather Bureau's hurricane forecasters in a state of mild exaltation. Well before Cindy hit the coast, they predicted that she would be a mild blow and advised Carolinians to relax. The dead-accurate forecast saved untold time, effort and money, and to meteorologists, it was one more bit of evidence of how far their inexact science has advanced. In 1935 the Weather Bureau duly warned that a hurricane was approaching the Florida Keys. It could say no more. The hurricane proved the most violent in U.S. records, and killed more than 400 people.

Meteorologist Banner Miller of the National Hurricane Center at Miami is certain that this fatal underestimation will not be repeated. Today's weathermen know that the strength of a hurricane depends on the temperature of the sea water, the temperature of the air up to 50,000 ft., the strength of inflowing winds at low levels and dozens of other factors, and that all the factors can be measured. The only problem is getting the information rapidly and accurately.

Last week the Weather Bureau was readying an array of new gadgets to track a storm like a beagle after a bunny. Stimulated by the many reports of large flocks of birds trapped in the eye of a hurricane, unable to escape against the strong winds blowing toward its center, the Weather Bureau has devised a balloon that keeps itself floating in air of a specified barometric pressure. Released from a hurricane-scouting aircraft, it should follow along at a constant barometric pressure, trapped in the eye like the birds, broadcasting radio signals that tell the hurricane watchers how fast the storm is moving, its pressure, etc. A second gadget still under test is a big, inflated sphere that will ride the surface ocean waves in the eye, broadcasting similar information at sea level. Still a third promising device: a camera-carrying rocket that flies high enough to bring down pictures of an entire hurricane, several hundred miles across, give weathermen their first complete look at a big blow.

The gadgets may get a real test this summer. Meteorologist Miller notes that hurricanes have occurred during May only nine times since 1887, and each of those years had an unusually large number of storms. It may be sheer coincidence, or it could be because hurricane conditions become favorable sooner and last longer. If true, the 1959 season may be a lively one. Tropical storm No. 1, Arlene, roared in over Louisiana on May 30.

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