A Matter of Inches?

The 1958 campaign, off weeks ago to a slow-paced start, picked up speed and tore into its final week with drums thumping and speakers sprouting from every stump. Against gloomy predictions of voter apathy, U.S. registration reached an alltime nonpresidential-year high of an estimated 76,145,600 (v. 74,879,146 in 1954). Against Republican complaints about his above-it-all political leadership, President Eisenhower threw himself into the campaign with the toughest partisan speeches of his life. And against national and international trends that had threatened to turn the elections into a Democratic cakewalk to sweeping victory, came developments that, in state after state, had turned the contests into down-to-the-wire horse races. The updated issues:

Recession: Even as the U.S. began pulling out of its recession last spring, Democrats still made hay by labeling the G.O.P. as the Depression Party. But by last week, with signs of returned prosperity plain on all sides, the economic issue no longer cut so sharply into Republican chances. Thus, in hard-hit West Virginia, a Democratic poll taken last May showed 73% listing recession as the top political issue; this month the same poll showed recession tumbling to 49%--alongside the state's road-building program, at 48%. Similarly in New Jersey, Republican Senate Candidate Robert Kean's prospects have improved in startling proportion to a 34,000 drop in unemployment since mid-June.

Labor: Right-to-work proposals, on the ballot in California, Washington, Idaho, Kansas, Ohio and Colorado, set off the greatest Big-Labor registration drive in history. It was generally assumed that labor's get-out-the-vote efforts could only help Democrats. But by last week a good many labor leaders were not quite so sure. Right to work itself seemed to be holding its own in almost every state where it was a direct issue. And there was a real possibility that some of the voters urged to the polls by labor might themselves vote to curb labor bossism, the imponderable issue of election year 1958.

Farm Policy: Despite a year of bumper crops and rising prices, farmers west of the Mississippi do not generally credit Agriculture Secretary Ezra Taft Benson with their prosperity--in fact, quite the contrary. The farm vote, traditionally Republican, remains a real Democratic hope (TIME, Oct. 20). The best Republican hope is that Midwestern farmers will vote according to the jingle in their pockets on election day.

Foreign Policy: A month ago there were widespread fears that the Republican Administration was leading the U.S. into war over a hunk of rock named Quemoy. As of last week the Administration's Far Eastern stand was by no means considered a political success, but the on-again-off-again cease-fire had brought a general easing of tension.

Party Leadership: President Eisenhower's longstanding reluctance to dramatize the record of the Republican Administration in political terms left the G.O.P. leaderless and disorganized, while the Democrats built up a two-to-one organizational lead in volunteer workers across the U.S. Then Vice President Richard Nixon set off on his no-stop campaign trip, gave state and local G.O.P. leaders the spark they needed. By last week, with Ike jumping into the campaign to assert his own brand of party leadership (see Republicans), Republican spirits were on the rise. At week's end, bone weary, with voice choked by a cold, Nixon hailed "the shot in the arm" that Ike had given Republicans. Said Nixon: "Today I can confidently say that as we enter the last critical week it is a brand-new campaign."

But despite all the improved Republican possibilities, the Democrats still held the high ground. In the Senate, simple arithmetic showed that far more Republican-held seats than Democratic were at stake in closely contested states (see box), hence the odds clearly favored an increased Democratic Senate majority. In the House, where incumbency is a decided asset, 26 Republicans had retired for health or other personal reasons, against only six Democrats; in addition, far more Republican seats were seriously challenged than Democratic. In terms of net gains in House or Senate seats, the 1958 elections could still turn out to be a Democratic landslide, though in terms of vote margins in specific races, it might still be a landslide of inches.

But if the belated Republican drive continued up to election day, the inches might add up to two or three additional Republican governorships (most likely: a victory by Republican Nelson Rockefeller over Democrat Averell Harriman in New York) and a substantial cutting of expected losses in the House.

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