The People v. Tax Cut

Leaving Washington for the ten-day Easter recess, many a member of Congress took with him a firm conviction that he was going to find tax-cut sentiment running strong back home. Far from it, says roving Public-Opinion Canvasser Samuel Lubell, 46, self-styled "old doorbell ringer," whose intimate knowledge of the home front has given him a record of remarkable accuracy in calling the last two presidential elections.

Using his special detailed-interview approach, rather than the pollster technique of one or two either-or questions, Lubell talked with hundreds of "housewives, farmers, workers, storekeepers, clerks and businessmen" in six farm counties and 15 cities. His most significant discovery, reported this week in his United Features syndicated column: the U.S. public, showing itself more levelheaded than many a Congressman and labor leader, stands eight to five against tax cuts, and even more strongly against general wage boosts.

Why are people against tax cuts? Lu-bell's subjects gave three principal reasons: i) the individual family's slice would be too thin to make much difference; 2) tax cuts would be of no direct help to the unemployed; and 3) "the country needs the money." An Iowa milkman, a Georgia welder, a Texas printer, a California autoworker and a New Jersey insurance salesman all used almost identical words: "It would help me personally, but how can the Government run without money? And what will we do about the Russians?"

The "overwhelming" opposition to the general wage boosts urged by the A.F.L.C.I.O. leaders stems from the public conviction that higher wages would only bring on higher prices. Women are more sensitive to inflation than men are, and white-collar workers more than factory workers. But even factory workers feel that "wages are high enough, if only prices can be kept from going up." "So strong is this yearning," Lubell reports, that some people favor a federal wage-price freeze.

Some other Lubell findings:

P: While mistrusting both tax cuts and wage boosts, the public "clearly favors some Government action" to halt the economy's slide--principally public-works programs, especially roads and schools.

P: Workers under 30 are most worried about losing their jobs, tend to favor drastic Government action, "With relatively little seniority or developed skills, these younger workers seem least secure. They also have plunged deepest into debt to buy new homes and autos." It will take a while before families in this plight do much buying of durable goods.

P: "The temper of the public as a whole is not that of a nation sliding into another depression." One-fourth of the families interviewed said they were "better off" than a year ago, one-half felt they were "about the same," and only one-fourth considered themselves "worse off."

P: Fear that next summer will see an auto strike adds to the recession pinch by making autoworkers, steelworkers, suppliers, et al. all the more reluctant to spend their money.

P: The recession was not caused by a shortfall in consumer purchasing power (the A.F.L.-C.I.O. argument). The aircraft industry is drooping because of transition from planes to missiles.

Since there is no one cause-all, concludes Lubell, there is no "miraculous cure-all."

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