Election Prospects

Canada's election campaign raced toward voting day on June 10 with seemingly little doubt--according to pollsters --that Prime Minister Louis St. Laurent's Liberals would extend their 22-year reign. But the Tory opposition party, aroused by earnest Prairie Lawyer John Diefenbaker, threatened to walk off with a sizable chunk of the comfortable Liberal majority in the House of Commons.

Outside Quebec, the Liberals' solid South, the Prime Minister's party has slumped badly since the last election, in the latest Gallup poll held a lead of only 2.6% over the Tories. Yet by sweeping Quebec's bloc of 75 Commons seats, the Liberals can ride out the Tory gains elsewhere. Last week the 75-year-old Prime Minister moved spryly through the Quebec countryside, battening down the Liberals' holdings with talks in flawless French. "I will tell you a secret, which really isn't a secret, concerning the method which has helped me to succeed," confided St. Laurent. "I have always believed that the concept of pere de famille is the best one to apply in public administration."

In a brief foray into Quebec, Tory Chieftain Diefenbaker could play no such homey role. Reading speeches in schoolboy French, Diefenbaker was unable to shake Quebec's traditional suspicion of the Conservatives, whose strength is based in the English culture of neighboring Ontario. But across the provinces, Diefenbaker has pumped new spirit into a party that last won a Canadian federal election in 1930. Elected Tory leader only 5 1/2 months ago, Diefenbaker has kept himself on a handshaking, speechmaking grind from morning until well after midnight through six weeks of the campaign.

Despite the Tory leader's emergence as an aggressive, often eloquent campaigner, he had only regional discontents to fan for votes; e.g., the Western farmers' fears that the government would be unable to empty the West's wheat-glutted bins, the depressed Atlantic Provinces' need for federal economic aid. Though he argued effectively that the Liberal Party has grown fat and overbearing after 22 years in office, the Liberals outflanked him by pointing to a record of peace and plenty.

The Liberals, who took 170 of the Commons' 265 seats in 1953, were seemingly assured of holding a majority together. Any Tory surge that cut the Liberal seats to 132 (one less than a majority) would rank as a major upset. The likeliest prospect: the Tories, who won only 51 seats last time, will increase their holdings by between 20 to 40 seats.

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