New Tory Leader?

A man who insisted that he was not an active candidate--and that he has not asked a single delegate to vote for him --opened up a long lead last week in the race for the leadership of Canada's Progressive Conservative Party. Barring a spectacular upset on the convention floor, it seemed almost certain that Saskatchewan M.P. John George Diefenbaker, 61, who bid unsuccessfully for the job in 1942 and 1948, would win the race at the party's convention in Ottawa on Dec. 10. Although he has been a front runner to succeed Tory Leader George Drew ever since Drew resigned because of ill health two months ago, two obstacles stand in Diefenbaker's way to the leadership: the Tories have not won a national election from the long-entrenched Liberal Party since 1930, and there is a strong movement in the ranks to pass over the top professionals and draft the University of Toronto's popular President Sidney Smith (TIME, Oct. 29). Even if the Smith draft fails to materialize, there is widespread doubt that Diefenbaker can muster delegates in the key province of Quebec. Lawyer Diefenbaker's perennial campaign for a Canadian Bill of Rights is often interpreted as a threat to Quebec's religious and language guarantees, and it is feared that he might be unacceptable to French Canadians.

As the leadership campaign moved into its final fortnight, Diefenbaker appeared to be clearing both obstacles. Toronto's President Smith refused to go along with a draft,* sticking to his argument that he lacks parliamentary experience and is too old (59) to begin acquiring it. Meanwhile, Diefenbaker piled up surprising strength in Quebec: a group representing 100 of the province's top Tories last week pledged their support to him.

The Diefenbaker breakthrough seemed to be occurring not only in Quebec but on a national scale. A Gallup Poll of Conservatives in all provinces showed him holding a four-to-one lead over his nearest rival.

*Because Canadian convention rules require a nominee to sign his own nomination papers, a true draft is impossible.

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