Image & Reality

One of Communism's greatest assets is the readiness of its enemies to credit it with success. Let its policies turn hard, and critics regard its harshness with awe; let Communist policy turn soft, and critics shudder even more at the potentialities of its seductive powers. Let its membership fall, and critics are ready to believe Russian explanations that they really want only hard-core members. Sometimes the fear of becoming complacent leads critics to refuse to face the facts, if those facts appear unfavorable to the Communists. Last week the anti-Communist New Leader magazine issued a special supplement, Communism's Postwar Decade, compiled by Russian-born Simon Wolin, a specialist on Soviet affairs for Radio Liberation.

His findings: Communist membership, since 1946, has declined steadily in Western Europe, stagnated in the Middle East, and barely held its own in Latin America and in those parts of Asia unreachable by the Red army. Wolin's estimates of Communist Party strength:

Britain. Down from 60,000 to 34,000, but some Red cells in vital strategic industries, e.g., dockyards and electrical industries.

Benelux. Down from 100,000 to 30,000 in Belgium in the past seven years, down from 50,000 to 33,000 in The Netherlands.

France. Down from 850,000 dues-paying members in 1946 to fewer than 350,000. Also a decline in factory cells, and difficulty in recruiting youth. Still influential with the intellectuals, the middle class and the professionals. Communist voting strength remains steady at around 5,000,000, making the Communist Party the second largest (after the Socialists) in France's National Assembly.

Italy. Down from 2,300,000 in 1946 to 1,700,000 in 1954, but still the biggest Communist Party outside the Iron Curtain. Losing some of its hold on the trade unionists. "Even inflated official Communist figures indicate stagnation and not growth in Italy." The impressive Communist vote in Italy's last national election: 6,120,000 (22.6% of the vote), plus 3,440,000 (12.7%) for Nenni's fellow-traveling Socialists.

West Germany. Down from 300,000 in 1946 to 125,000 last year.

Norway. Down from 40,000 to 7,500.

Most of the 2,500,000 party members and 16 million sympathizers in Western Europe, concludes Wolin, are in France and Italy. For this, Wolin offers one electoral explanation: "In the strong Scandinavian democracies, and especially under the Anglo-Saxon two-party system, disaffection swings public opinion to the main opposition party; in weak democracies, especially under the system of proportional representation, it can benefit Communist parties."

Beyond such holdings, Wolin says, Communism has "unique opportunities." To many ex-colonial peoples, "the U.S.S.R. seems a highly industrialized country . . . Soviet military might impresses them . . . Soviet propaganda of nationalism, independence and state sovereignty, sincere or not, evokes strong, emotional response." Yet Communism, outside China and its bordering areas, is barely holding its own. Wolin's figures:

Middle East. Insignificant Communist Party membership in Arab states (the highest: Syria with 10,000), but disproportionately high among intellectuals. All but one of the Communist leaders in Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan come from the landlord class. Israel has 3,700 Communists and 3.2% of the vote, but the Mapam Party (7.3%) often backs them up.

India. Communists are under fierce attack by Nehru's government, which jailed 8,500 proCommunists in 1951, but are strongly organized in southeastern India, particularly in the state of Andhra, where the Communists polled 31.6% of the vote in last summer's local elections.

Burma. Communist Party membership is a crime, but Red-inspired guerrillas are still active in the Shan hills. The only pro-Communist paper in Burma has a circulation of 3,000, is the smallest in the country.

Japan. Membership down to 30,000 from its peak of 108,000 in 1950.

Latin America. Communist parties are illegal in 15 out of the 20 nations. Actually, the Reds work through "united fronts," most of which are believed to be directed by a special Soviet office in Prague, where Jacobo Arbenz, pro-Red President of Guatemala, took refuge after he was unseated by the anti-Communist revolution of July 1954. Combined Communist membership in Latin America: fewer than 250,-ooo. The main Red stronghold is Brazil, with some 60,000 active Communists. Everywhere, Red leadership is in the hands of "disgruntled elements of the middle class, frustrated intellectuals and students."

Worldwide, the strength of Communism has declined in the last decade, Researcher Wolin concludes. "But no nation has yet proved able to destroy the roots of Communism. Its potential force, the ability to take advantage of favorable situations, to turn the present retreat into a new attack, are still formidable."

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.