Primary Problems

As he painstakingly formulated his political plans over the past summer, Adlai Stevenson figured that he would have little serious Democratic opposition to his bid for the chance to face Dwight Eisenhower next year. Stevenson laid out his schedule accordingly: he would announce his candidacy in November and immediately begin concentrating on the campaign for the 1956 general election. He figured, as did most political observers, that he could carry the convention without having to dissipate his energy in the various state presidential primaries.

The plan made eminently good sense --until the moment that President Eisen hower's illness vastly increased the value of the Democratic nomination. Stevenson is still miles in front of any other candidate, and his nomination might be considered in the bag except for the troublesome tactical problem of the party primaries. On how to handle this, Stevenson has been getting conflicting advice. A fast-dwindling group of Stevenson followers argues that he is already so far ahead that he would be taking a needless risk by entering any primaries. A second group insists that Stevenson can prove himself the strongest Democratic candidate by entering a few important but carefully selected primaries.

Still another group--which includes Chicago's influential Mayor Richard Daley--thinks that Stevenson should enter all the primaries--or almost all--thereby avoiding charges that he is afraid to submit himself to the voters.

One In, One Out. In balancing the possibilities, Stevenson must consider the situation of his two most obvious rivals for the nomination: Tennessee's Senator Estes Kefauver and New York's Governor Averell Harriman.

Kefauver, who has left little doubt that he will run since returning from his two-month world tour, is unpopular with most of the big-city Democratic organization leaders and with many Southern leaders. He therefore has little choice but to throw himself into the primaries. In 1952 handshaking Estes Kefauver built up a great reputation as a primary campaigner--a reputation that haunts Stevenson's followers when they realize that losses to Kefauver in important primaries might kill Stevenson's chances. Almost forgotten is the fact that Kefauver's 1952 primary victories came almost entirely against minor opposition. In New Hampshire he beat a Harry Truman who did not campaign and who scoffed at presidential primaries as "eyewash." In Oregon Kefauver won with Stevenson's and Supreme Court Justice William Douglas' names on the ballot against him--but they had been placed there against their wishes, and neither campaigned. Only in Nebraska, against Oklahoma's Senator Robert Kerr, did Kefauver defeat a name candidate who was actively campaigning.

Harriman, on the other hand, appears to have no opportunities whatever of winning primaries. His strategy is to duck all primaries by refusing to declare himself formally as a candidate for President. Said Harriman in Des Moines recently: "I am not going into any primary elections. I would ask that my name be withdrawn if it is proposed." Harriman's hopes are based on the possibility that Kefauver can knock off Stevenson by defeating him in some key primaries. The Harriman camp assumes that the party professionals would deny Kefauver the nomination no matter how many primaries he might win. Then Averell Harriman, his record unsullied by primary defeats, could come forth with his big bloc of New York votes, and offer himself to the convention.

Some Easy, Some Hard. Stevenson does not have the clear-cut choices of Harri man and Kefauver. He must weigh the risks of entering specific primaries against the loss of face he may suffer by not entering them. In some of the 19 states that will hold primaries next year, his decision is relatively simple: he would, for example, be foolhardy to enter Ohio's primary if popular Governor Frank Lausche runs as a favorite son; on the other hand, he would be foolish not to enter the primary in his home state, Illinois, where his victory is a foregone conclusion.

But in other states the problem of the primaries calls for shrewd appraisal. Among these:

New Hampshire, to be held March 13, is the first of the state primaries and therefore a focal point for national interest. Few of Stevenson's followers want any part of the New Hampshire primary; they can recall all too clearly the tall man who slogged through the snow in 1952, pumped hands on all sides and drawled, "I'm Estes Kefauver." By his 1952 primary win in New Hampshire, Kefauver was able to place his backers at the head of the state organization. He has done his best to maintain his New Hampshire strength, not failing to keep up a steady flow of postcards from as far away as Pakistan. Nevertheless, there are signs that Kefauver's New Hampshire support is wavering and that a Stevenson organization is in the making.

Minnesota, March 20, holds high opportunity for Stevenson. His statements in favor of rigid 90% farm supports assured him of support from the potent organization of Senator Hubert Humphrey, as evidenced by the endorsement of Stevenson this week by Minnesota's Democratic Farmer-Labor Party (see above). Minnesota's Democratic leaders feel certain that they can hand Stevenson a big enough win to wipe out the effects of a possible setback in New Hampshire. Kefauver has little strength in Minnesota; Harriman has none.

Wisconsin, April 3, is the toughest problem for Stevenson strategists. It is one of the oldest and most respected of the state primaries, and it is regarded as one of the truer tests of candidates' strength. It can be a make-or-break primary, as it was with Wendell Willkie in 1944. Estes Kefauver won in Wisconsin in 1952 (beating nothing) and has never stopped running; he has kept up regular correspondence with about 650 more or less influential Wisconsin Democrats. Stevenson's followers worry more about Wisconsin than any other primary partly because they fear their candidate would have to put on a Kefauver-type campaign, featuring handshaking, baby-kissing and folksy platitudes. Yet Stevenson has impressive backing in Milwaukee, Madison, Kenosha and Racine: at a recent Milwaukee County meeting of Democratic leaders, a straw vote went 19 to 3 for Stevenson over Kefauver. Wisconsin may be one of the hardest primaries for Stevenson--and it could be the one to assure his nomination.

Nebraska, May 15, is another state where Stevenson is being urged to enter as a condition for support from some important Midwest Democrats.

Oregon, May 18, is a primary in which a candidate's name may be entered without his consent. Kefauver won in 1952 against token opposition. Democratic State Chairman Howard Morgan recently announced for Stevenson, came out with a blast against Harriman and Tammany Hall Boss Carmine De Sapio. Jack Bain, who headed Kefauver's 1952 primary campaign, says that "we will get Kefauver on the ballot, by petition if necessary, unless the Senator objects himself--and I haven't heard of any objections." As they approach the Oregon primary, the Democratic hopefuls will be acutely aware that Oregon is where Harold Stassen lost the Republican nomination to Tom Dewey in 1948.

Florida, May 29, gives Stevenson a chance to show strength in the South. The state's liberal Democratic wing, led by ex-Senator Claude Pepper, will probably back Kefauver, as it did in 1952 (when Kefauver lost to Georgia's Senator Richard Russell). Popular Governor LeRoy Collins seems to lean toward Stevenson.

In a contest, Stevenson would be favored.

California, on June 5, is considered the most important of all to Stevenson. As one of the latest primaries, it gives him an opportunity to close his pre-convention campaign with a bang in a state that Kefauver carried easily in 1952 (against a slate headed by Attorney General "Pat" Brown). San Francisco Attorney De Lancey C. Smith says he has been instructed by Kefauver to get together a statewide organization for next year's fight. California National Committeeman Paul Ziffren is certain that Stevenson will enter the primary. "I would be shocked if he backed out," says Ziffren, "and I would be shocked if he did not win."

Good as his chances are, in California-and elsewhere, Stevenson faces his decisions on them with no joy. But as Alan Cranston, head of California's Democratic Council, says: "Adlai cannot be a reluctant candidate this time; that's like trying to be a virgin twice."

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