Chart of the Future

What is the commercial future of atomic energy? To find out, the Atomic Industrial Forum, a nonprofit organization of topflight businessmen headed by Detroit Edison Co.'s President Walker L. Cisler,* started a year ago to chart the future of the atomic industry through 1965. This week A.I.F., with the close collaboration of the AEC, brought out the most comprehensive forecast to date on the future of private atomic energy in the U.S.

Despite the popularity of "atomic" stocks in Wall Street, A.I.F. said, the biggest market for nuclear power plants for at least eight more years will be military, e.g., engines for submarines, other ships and aircraft (by 1959 the U.S. will be turning out at least one nuclear-propelled carrier or cruiser every year). Nevertheless, during that period several atomic power plants will be built. The biggest handicap to commercial atomic power is high cost. Capital investment for large nuclear plants is running about $500 per kw., (v. $125 for conventional plants).

The cost of atomic propulsion engines starts at about $1,250 per kw. To bring costs down and iron out the bugs, utilities must expect to build and experiment (probably at a loss) with scores of plants, with a total capacity of 3,000,000 to 5,000,000 kw., more than enough to serve the 8,050,000 people in New York City.

But around 1962 the age of cheap atomic power will dawn. Utilities will have learned enough to operate plants efficiently, capital costs will be down to about $180 per kw., and nuclear electricity will become competitive with conventional electricity. After that, private industry will be the biggest atomic customer; supplying reactors, building plants, etc. may be a $700 million business yearly. By 1964 the atomic industry will need up to 40,000 scientists and engineers, about double the number employed today.

A.I.F. discounted reports that thorium will replace uranium as the leading commercial nuclear fuel. Said its survey:

"Thorium requirements are apt to be quite small--only a few tons per year by 1961--increasing to perhaps as much as 300 tons per year by 1965." A.I.F. also knocked down the popular concept that it takes only a handful of uranium to fuel a power plant. By 1965 all the military and civilian reactors in the U.S. will consume about 9,000 tons of uranium yearly (only six Ibs. or less can be extracted from a ton of ore), far more than estimated production now or in the near future.

* Whose company has teamed up with eight others to build one of the first private nuclear power plants.

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