Sinews of Peace

How strong is Russia? Last week, in an analysis of comparative economic growth between the Iron Curtain and the Western powers, prepared for the Joint Congressional Committee on the Economic Report, the U.S. got an answer that went far beyond the usual statistics--numbers of divisions, fleets of bombers, supplies of atom bombs, etc.

The Kremlin, the Congressional Library's research staff found, "has been hiding its lesser economic strength...to propagate the idea that the economies of the West are in decay...The present economic capacity of Western Europe, the U.S. and Canada is significantly greater in terms of absolute magnitudes, diversity and flexibility than the combined strength of the Soviet bloc."

Arms v. Men. The phrase "significantly greater" may be the understatement of the year, going by the report's own statistics. At $155 billion, the gross national product of Russia and her European satellites is less than one-quarter of the $690 billion gross national product of the U.S., Canada and Free Europe. Soviet production is expected to grow slightly faster than U.S. production (5% v. 4% a year), but even if it doubles by 1970, it will still be less than two-thirds of the U.S.'s present G.N.P.

Using 1953 figures, the report estimates that Russian military spending in 1953 was the equivalent of $17 billion, or 15% of G.N.P. The same year, U.S. military spending was $51 billion, or 15% of G.N.P.

Russia does not spend more for armament because a greater proportion of the Russian income must go to keep the people alive. More than half the Russian labor force is agricultural (v. 11% in the U.S.). At the low Russian economic level, there is not nearly as much margin as the U.S. has for military production.

People v. Progress. The chief indexes of economic strength show that, no matter how hard the Communist masters drive their people, they can progress only by stages, and have a long way to go.

Examples :

P:The Soviet bloc's fast-growing steel production, now 31% of the West's, may reach 38% by 1960. But its rate of growth in the past 30 years has been no greater than the growth which took place in the West during the first 30 years of modern industrialization (1880-1910). After 1960, Russia's steel expansion should taper off, just as the West's did.

P:Although the Soviet bloc hauls 85% of its freight by rail (v. less than 50% in the U.S.), it has only half as many locomotives as the U.S. and Western Europe combined, and only 3% of them are diesels or electric. Little Britain has more freight cars than vast Russia.

P:All types of commercial energy used in a year by Russia amount to only 1 1/2 tons of coal equivalent per capita (v. 7 1/2 tonsby the U.S.).

The report warns that economic superiority does not necessarily mean military superiority, especially in a short war. But the economic advantage of the Western powers, as shown by the analysis, is so enormous and so enduring as to suggest that the West has been underestimating its own relative strength. The report does not touch upon Red China, but other sources estimate the G.N.P. of that country at a mere $35 billion. Since that must first sustain 580 million Chinese, it is doubtful if Red China has available for military purposes one-tenth of what the U.S. is now spending for arms.

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