Polio Gamble

The National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis faced a dilemma. Not until April 1, 1955 could it hope to learn whether the Salk vaccine, tested in mass trials this past summer, really prevented polio. If it did, inoculations for 1955 would have to begin on that same date. But it takes months, and costs millions of dollars, to produce the tons of vaccine needed for a big-scale immunization program.

Last week President Basil O'Connor announced that the foundation is taking a $9,000,000 gamble by ordering 25 million cc. of the vaccine now. With 2,000,000 cc. on hand, that will be enough for 9,000,000 people to get three shots each. If the vaccine proves effective, the foundation will offer the shots without cost to: 1,390,000 children who served as "controls" in the 1954 trials but did not get the vaccine; 4,825,000 youngsters now in the first grade; and 4,275,000 women who will be pregnant between April and September. (These figures add up to 10,490,000, but only 85% are expected to take shots.)

If the vaccine does not prove effective, the foundation's $9,000,000 may go down the drain, along with an equal amount being gambled by six manufacturing companies. During the winter, the companies will produce for their own account an estimated 27 million cc. (30 tons), which they hope to be able to sell (at prices still undetermined) through family doctors for private patients. In any case, no vaccine can be released except under license from the Federal Government's Laboratory of Biologies Control.

Why does it take so long to find out whether the vaccine is any good? Last week the University of Michigan's Dr. Thomas Francis Jr., in charge of evaluating the trials, spelled out the answer:

P: The program requires 120 workers to tabulate reports from 20,000 doctors and 40,000 nurses on each of 1,830,000 children in the trials (440,000 who got the vaccine, plus the 1,390,000 who did not). The mail supplying the 144 million necessary items of information is mountainous.

P: Some of the most vital data come from blood samples (now being analyzed in 27 laboratories across the U.S.) that were taken just before and after the vaccination period. Beginning about Nov. 1, each youngster will give a third sample, so that delicate tests with live virus will show changes in the concentration of polio antibodies circulating in the blood. This part of the program requires checking 2,000,000 test tubes, half of them under the microscope. It will be March before Dr. Francis gets the last word on the November blood samples.

P: Even trickier is the task of deciding whether a "polio victim" actually had polio, or some other disease that causes similar symptoms. Every case must be confirmed by virus tests. Then, physical therapists check again on the victim's neck muscles, breathing, use of legs and arms, ability to speak clearly and to chew food, to measure the degree of lasting damage. This is necessary because the vaccine's usefulness may be of an in-between kind; it may not prevent all polio infections, or even paralysis, but yet cut down the degree of paralysis.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.