Senate Prospects

The U.S. Senate has 49 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including Wayne Morse). Thirty-seven places are up for election on Nov. 2, with 13 Southern Democrats certain to win and five G.O.P. seats--two in New Hampshire, one each in Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota--almost sure to stay Republican. There are 19 contests in which the outcome is more or less in doubt.

Where Republicans Lead. The G.O.P. appears likely to hold onto its Senate seats from Michigan, Massachusetts and Nebraska (where two are up, but only one is in serious contention). In Michigan, Democrat Patrick McNamara has had some good breaks, e.g., Defense Secretary Wilson's bird-dog remarks, but Republican Incumbent Homer Ferguson is holding on for dear life to an early lead. Nebraska's Republican Candidate Roman Hruska would be considered a good conservative in almost any other state; in Nebraska, his moderate tendencies have him in some trouble--although probably not enough for Democrat James Green to beat him. Massachusetts' Republican Senator Leverett Saltonstall is in a relatively strong position; he has compiled an innocuous Senate record that avoids giving offense, and he was helped by a split between Democratic Candidate Foster Furcolo and Democratic Senator John Kennedy.

Less promising is the Republican outlook in Idaho, where Senator Henry Dworshak, fresh from his sorry showing in the Army-McCarthy hearings, is being pressed by Glen Taylor, the Progressive Party's 1948 candidate for Vice President, who has yodeled his campaign message in the state's every nook and chasm.

Where Democrats Lead. Democratic Senators Hubert Humphrey in Minnesota, Clinton Anderson in New Mexico and Theodore Green in Rhode Island all are solid favorites, as is Colorado's Democratic Candidate John Carroll, running to succeed Ed Johnson.

Democrats have strong prospects for taking two seats presently held by Republicans. They are in Nevada and Wyoming. In the last decade, Nevada Republicans have won only with help from Democrat Pat McCarran, whose feuds within his own party sometimes caused him to support the G.O.P. By gubernatorial appointment, Republican Ernest S. Brown now tentatively holds the Senate place left vacant by McCarran's death. He will not get the necessary McCarranite votes; his opponent, Alan Bible, was one of the old man's most devoted followers.

Wyoming's former Democratic Senator Joseph O'Mahoney is campaigning to succeed Republican Edward Crippa, who is not running. O'Mahoney was defeated for re-election in 1952. But Republican Candidate William Henry Harrison has offered the voters little besides his great-greatgrandfather's name.

The Big Nine. The Democratic Party, therefore, stands to take a one-seat cushion (44 seats to 43) into the nine remaining Senate races. To gain a tie situation (in which Vice President Nixon's vote would give Republicans control of the Senate), the G.O.P. must win in five of these crucial contests:

DELAWARE. Republican Candidate Herbert Warburton is a good Eisenhower man, voted faithfully with the Administration while in the House. Incumbent Senator J. Allen Frear is a Southern-type Democrat. The school-segregation issue has hurt Warburton; so have low farm prices, especially in broilers. Frear probably leads in a close race.

NEW JERSEY. In the campaign to succeed Republican Senator Robert Hendrickson, who is retiring. G.O.P. Candidate Clifford Case has repeatedly been smeared by Joe McCarthy's hard-core following. His opponent, Representative Charles Howell, is a harmless party hack who has the help of a revivified Democratic state organization.

KENTUCKY. On form, in a normally staunch Democratic state, former Vice President Alben Barkley figures to win over Republican Incumbent John Sherman Cooper. But Cooper is immensely popular and has distinguished himself as a Senator. He should not be counted out of the running.

ILLINOIS. Democratic Senator Paul Douglas pits his tireless economic-scare talk against Republican Candidate Joseph Meek's tireless small talk. Meek is a superior performer on the handshaking, curbstone level; Douglas is better in formal speeches.

OHIO. Republican Candidate George Bender leads; Democratic Senator Thomas Burke is gaining. Bender depends heavily on the Eisenhower popularity. Burke on that of Democratic Governor Frank Lausche. Ohio is generally Republican, and the G.O.P. has a good chance to pick up a key seat.

IOWA. Senator Guy Gillette, 75, is the most successful Democrat in Iowa's history, but G.O.P. Candidate Thomas Martin, who is giving up a House seat held for eight terms, has been campaigning for nearly two years, has made few mistakes, and has the state's normal Republicanism working for him. He might topple Gillette.

MONTANA. Senator James Murray, 78, a New Dealer, faces charges of socialism from Republican Representative Wesley D'Ewart, who is widely known and liked. Jim Murray has become habitual to Montanans; D'Ewart is making a stiff uphill fight.

OREGON. Republican Senator Guy Cordon (who was introduced by House Speaker Joe Martin, visiting in Oregon, as "Cy Gordon") is running scared, with good reason. Democratic Candidate Richard Neuberger, a free-lance writer, has filled the air with protests against what he calls the Eisenhower "giveaway" program on natural resources. Gadfly Senator Wayne Morse is campaigning hard for Neuberger. Oregon usually goes Republican; Cordon needs a good performance from his party's state organization.

CALIFORNIA. Republican Senator Thomas Kuchel, appointed by Earl Warren to succeed Dick Nixon, is quiet and dull. Democratic Candidate Sam Yorty is loud and dull. Neither is well known in the state. Kuchel had a good lead, but Yorty has made gains.

The odds are slightly less than 50-50 for the Republicans to win--as they must--in five of the nine key states. Even under the best of conditions, they can hardly hope to do better than that. The Democrats, on the other hand, would need only a medium-sized national groundswell to take seven or eight of the nine--which is about as fair a Senate prospect as any politician could ask for this year.

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