More Omens

The Gallup poll last week focused attention on a baffling and important segment of U.S. voters, the independents, who make up 28% of the electorate. The results:

Eisenhower 54%

Stevenson 25%

Undecided 21%

This week Gallup reported on sectional polls of all voters Dwight Eisenhower is running ahead of Tom Dewey's 1948 vote, with his biggest gains west of the Mississippi and in the South. In every section outside the South, Ike is running ahead of Stevenson, even when the undecided are allocated 3-1 in favor of the Democrats. Gallup's results (after the 3-1 allocation):

NEW ENGLAND

Eisenhower 55%

Stevenson 45%

MIDDLE ATLANTIC

Eisenhower 52%

Stevenson 48%

EAST CENTRAL

Eisenhower 53%

Stevenson 47%

WEST CENTRAL

Eisenhower 56%

Stevenson 44%

SOUTH

Eisenhower 44%

Stevenson 56%

FAR WEST

Eisenhower 55%

Stevenson 45%

In all cases, Gallup found that Ike is running ahead of the Republican Party. When the voters were asked "which party" they wanted to win, eliminating the candidates' names, the G.O.P. ran five points behind Ike in the South, two to four points behind him elsewhere. Gallup's conclusion: "The hope of a Republican victory now rests almost entirely on Ike's personal popularity."

Gallup's report seemed to be good omens for Ike Eisenhower. But remembering the late shift of voters in 1948 and the polls' failure, no one thought the conclusion was foregone.

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