The Omens

The political soothsayers last week stepped up their efforts to look into the future. Some of their methods were doubtless better than those of the ancients who examined chicken entrails. In Washington, D.C., retired Barber Harry Rich announced that customers of the nation's barbershops favored Stevenson over Eisenhower 58,350 to 56,213. Kansas City, Mo.'s Staley Milling Co. found that 51.6% of its Midwestern customers preferred to buy their chicken feed in sacks bearing the G.O.P. elephant. Operating on a somewhat more scientific basis, Gallup pollsters found that the Democratic Party has gained ground during October.

In a nationwide Gallup survey, voters were first asked: "If the presidential election were being held today, which political party would you like to see win. . . ?" The results (announced last week):

Republican 45%

Democratic 38%

Undecided 17%

When the undecided voters were asked to express their "leanings" and the leaners were added to these decided totals, the results became:

Republican 49%

Democratic 45%

Still undecided 6%

This is a gain of 2% for the Democrats and a loss of 2% for the Republicans since early September.

Recent Gallup poll surveys of individual states put the Republicans ahead in three key states which Harry Truman carried by small majorities in 1948. Lumping together firmly committed voters and those who would admit to a leaning, the results were:

CALIFORNIA

Republican 54.5%

Democratic 40.5%

Still undecided 5 %

ILLINOIS

Republican 47%

Democratic 42%

Still undecided 11%

OHIO

Republican 52%

Democratic 41%

Still undecided 7%

In Florida and Texas, Gallup pollsters found Republican strength far above normal. Relative party standings (including leaners):

FLORIDA

Republican 47%

Democratic 49%

Still undecided 4%

TEXAS

Republican 37%

Democratic 56%

Still undecided 7%

In a Crossley poll survey published last week, farmers in the heavily agricultural states of Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin gave Dwight Eisenhower a big lead over

Stevenson. Among farmers whom the Crossley pollsters considered "probable voters," the results were:

Eisenhower 49.6%

Stevenson 37.3%

Minor parties 4%

Undecided 12.7%

Favorable to Republican hopes as most of these polls seemed, they were no solid forecast of Republican victory in November. The Republicans, warned Pollster George Gallup last week, had failed to convince the average voter that they had his interests at heart. (Asked which party they thought better "for people like yourself," 48% of those Gallup polled named the Democratic Party, only 31% the Republican Party.) "G.O.P. hopes," said Gallup, "must be pinned almost entirely on the personal popularity of General Eisenhower." Last week Ike was still running ahead of the Republican Party as a whole, but his voter strength in the national Gallup poll had declined three points since late September.

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