KEY STATE-PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania will play an important and perhaps a deciding role in the 1952 election. Only New York has more electoral votes--although Pennsylvania is down to 32 (from 35 in 1948) as a result of the 1950 census, and now California rates an equal number of electors.

Background: In all but four presidential elections since 1860 Pennsylvania has voted Republican. In 1912 it switched to Teddy Roosevelt and the Bull Moosers, in 1936, 1940 and 1944 to Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal. In 1948 it gave Tom Dewey an edge of 150,000 votes (out of 3,735,000) and is now, by surface indications, once more a G.O.P. state. Its governor and both its U.S. Senators are Republican and so are 20 of its 33 Congressmen. Nevertheless, Pennsylvania must be wooed to be won by Eisenhower in 1952.

Thousands of Pennsylvania families still vote Republican as Georgians vote Democratic and for much the same reason: Gettysburg has not been completely forgotten. Even some of John L. Lewis' miners in the anthracite regions go Republican--they have never recovered from the Depression, still live under a black thunderhead of poverty and unemployment, react bitterly to high prices and the Democratic cry "Don't let them take it away."

In the years since passage of the Wagner Act, Pittsburgh and the smoke-curtained western steel counties around it have become a Democratic stronghold. Philadelphia now has a Democratic city administration for the first time since 1884, is still in the emotional throes of revolt against decades of tobacco-stained Republican boss rule, and is awash with independent-minded voters.

Pennsylvania, if its G.O.P. tradition can be ignored, has ingredients which may make it as unpredictable as New York or California. Its 1950 population of 10,562,000 is 70% urban. Nearly 3,000,000 are foreign-born or of recent foreign descent. Pennsylvania has more than half a million Negroes. There are more than 1,500,000 union members in the state. Among its population are 3,000,000 Protestants, 2,500,000 Roman Catholics, half a million Jews.

For U.S. Senator: G.O.P. Senator Ed Martin, former governor, an attorney, a World War I Army officer and former commandant of the Pennsylvania National Guard, is running for his second term. He is a stiff, lackluster old man (73) who has kept a close tongue in his head during his term in Washington, and has voted the way Bob Taft voted on almost all occasions. He is much more widely known than his Democratic opponent Guy K. Bard, a Lancaster county attorney who resigned as a federal district judge to make the race. If Martin were opposing Bard in an off year he would win handily; in 1952 the fortunes of both candidates seem tied to the presidential race.

For President: Soft-spoken Governor John Fine, a coal-patch boy who made good in the big city, is now the senior Republican in Pennsylvania by virtue of his control of state patronage. Pittsburgh's Mayor Dave Lawrence, a man who came up by the same hardfisted route, is recognized as the No. 1 Democrat. Although they look at the presidential race from opposite corners of the ring, their estimates of the Pennsylvania vote narrow down to essential views which are surprisingly alike.

Says Fine: "As of now, Pennsylvania is going to be Republican. But mind you, it has not solidified and a lot of people aren't saying anything. Emotional factors grow less & less important as Election Day gets closer. I believe this election will turn on two major questions: Will this prosperity hold up, and how do we best get peace? I hope Eisenhower talks more about these two big subjects."

Says Lawrence: "We have a chance. The decision of the voters doesn't really start to jell until Election Day is close at hand. People are thinking back 20 years and it is sobering them . . . they are prosperous and they want to stay that way. Our prospects depend on how well Stevenson gets his story across. So far, he is clicking."

As of this week, the great imponderable in Pennsylvania is Philadelphia--its voters may well tip the scales on Election Day. The Republicans can count on a majority of 200,000 or 300,000 votes from the Republican counties, the Democrats on an edge of up to 150,000 votes in Pittsburgh and the steel country. If Eisenhower can break even in Philadelphia he can win, by all indications, in a walk; if he can hold the Democratic lead down to 50,000 votes he can squeak through. But if Philadelphians vote Democratic in a big way, Adlai Stevenson could carry the state. (Truman carried Philadelphia by 7,000; F.D.R.'s biggest Philadelphia majority was 210,000 in 1936.)

The city's old Republican machine is all but extinct and no effective Democratic machine has replaced it. Both Eisenhower and Stevenson will be on their own in Philadelphia.

Best guess: the state will go Republican.

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