Shifts & Leanings

The uncertain science of political calculus indicates that Ike can win if the 146 uncommitted delegates divide evenly. Last week there was many an indication that his break among the uncommitted may be better than 50-50.

Politicians and pundits who had their binoculars trained on Michigan agreed that there were clear signals of a shift to Eisenhower. While National Committeeman Arthur Summerfield kept his silence, the word drifted through Republican conversations: Summerfield will come out for Ike at the proper moment. If he does, the Michigan delegation--now counted ten for Taft, ten for Ike and 26 uncommitted--might give as many as 40 of its 46 votes to Eisenhower.

Closer, Not Farther. In Pennsylvania, Governor John Fine said: "I am getting closer and closer to Eisenhower." Then he added quickly: "The chasm between me and Taft is not broadening." But as Fine talked, he seemed to be listing noticeably Ikeward. He found the argument that Taft can't win "has been most devastating . . . We've got a lot of people who, after 20 long years, don't want to take any risk at all." He mused at some length about a possibility: "If I should declare for Eisenhower, I think that the Taft people would feel that I have at least considered, to some extent, their feelings in this matter, too. And that, in the end, would help to create a harmonious condition in Pennsylvania and enhance our chance of carrying the state in the November elections."

Listening to the words from Pennsylvania, Bob Taft became a bit impatient with the governor. Fine, said Taft, "says one thing one day and another thing the next, but I do not believe he has consciously meant to indicate a preference." If John Fine goes to Eisenhower, up to 57 of the state's 70 votes may be counted for Eisenhower.

From Taft to Ike. While Bob Taft campaigned in Virginia last week, some shifting was going on there. Two previously uncommitted delegates announced they are for Ike, and one important Taft delegate went over with them. Said Virginia's former G.O.P. State Chairman Robert H. Woods: "In this campaign, I feel that every delegate should stand up and be for whoever he may honestly feel will more nearly assure victory ...I shall vote for the nomination of General Eisenhower."

Virginia's delegation had been counted eleven for Taft, one for Eisenhower and eleven uncommitted. At last week's caucus, there were indications that the shift was even greater than the three announcements indicated. The delegation named a Taftman to the credentials committee by a vote of 11-10, and elected an Ikeman to the resolutions committee by the same margin. The indication: a fairly even division between the two candidates.

But the shifts were not all on a one-way street. In New York, which TIME'S tabulation has been carrying as 85 for Ike, one for Taft, ten uncommitted, Taft has made some small gains. Manhattan Delegate Richard Neville said he will vote for Taft, and in Queens, Delegate Frank C. Kenna, county Republican chairman, indicated he was leaning Taftward. In Brooklyn, veteran G.O.P. Leader Jacob A. Livingston, a strong anti-Dewey man, announced for Taft. Although he is not a delegate, Livingston's influence is considerable. Taft may have ten or more New York votes.

These four states--Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New York--account for 99 of the 146 uncommitted votes. No other state has more than six uncommitted votes, and there is no indication of whether this group of 47 scattered uncommitted votes leans one way or the other.

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