The Next Quarter-Century

In his fantasy Nineteen Eighty-Four, George Orwell painted a frightening picture of what can happen to a nation that fails to guard its political freedoms. This week, in a five-volume, 813-page report that could be called Nineteen Seventy-Five, a presidential commission shows what can happen to a nation that neglects its natural resources. Though the results are far less terrifying than Orwell's, they are startling enough. The U.S., which has long been considered a bottomless store of natural resources, is fast running through its wealth. Unless something is done about it, the U.S. standard of living will fall, and the whole free world, now dependent on U.S. production, will be threatened.

In its comprehensive report, the five-man commission, headed by CBS Chairman William S. Paley, took a levelheaded, thoughtful glance at the material needs in the next quarter-century and laid down a broad plan of action on how they can be met.

Lesson from the Past. The report heavily underlines a profound change that has taken place in the U.S. economy in the past ten years during which the U.S. outgrew its own raw-material supplies. Americans will have a hard time adjusting themselves to the fact that in some respects they now live in a have-not nation.

Fifty years ago, says the report, the U.S. produced 15% more raw materials than it consumed; now it produces 9% less than it needs. Once a big exporter of copper, lead and zinc, it is now the largest importer of those metals. Assuming the traditional 3% annual growth in the economy--and a population rise to 193 million--the nation's raw-materials output by 1975 will fall 20% short of filling estimated needs.

The U.S. now uses 2 1/2 times more bituminous coal, four times more zinc, 26 times more natural gas, and 30 times more crude oil than it did in 1900. "There is scarcely a metal or a mineral fuel," says the report, "[whose use] since the outbreak of the first World War did not exceed the total used throughout the world in all the centuries preceding." The result is that though the U.S. has less than 10% of the free world's population and land area, it consumes close to half the free world's output of materials. Every man, woman & child in the U.S. now uses annually an average of 18 tons of materials --14,000 lbs. of fuel, 10,000 lbs. of building materials, 800 lbs. of metals, 5,700 lbs. of agricultural produce, etc.

Few Americans have thought much about replenishing the cupboard of natural resources: "As a nation, we have always been more interested in sawmills than in seedlings." Timber is now being used up 40% faster than new stands are growing; in 1950, the nation used up 8% of its known petroleum reserves, 6% of its lead and iron ore. But absolute shortages, says the commission, "are not the threat in the materials problem . . . The threat lies in insidiously rising costs"--not just dollar costs, but "real" costs in terms of the man-hours and capital needed. For years, "these real costs have been declining and this decline has helped our living standards to rise. But now this decline may have been slowed and in some cases reversed."

Solutions for the Future. What is the solution to the nation's worsening materials position? Part of it lies in more efficient use of the materials at hand, and better methods of collecting and reprocessing scrap. Example: "By our heedless methods of dumping tin cans we annually cast away 2,000,000 tons of scrap iron and 12,000 tons of tin . . ." With more efficient use should go more efficient raw-materials production; the commission notes that half the commercial grades of coal and petroleum in known reserves, is left behind in the production process.

Another part of the solution lies in synthesizing new materials like plastics, getting economic mass production of such new metals as titanium and germanium, and substituting the plentiful for the scarce all down the line. Sooner or later, as oil and gas become less plentiful and more expensive, "the nation probably will have to rely more on coal, which it has in abundance" (only 2 1/2% of known reserves have been mined to date).

To use U.S. reserves more efficiently, the National Security Resources Board should be revitalized, and a minerals census taken every five years; detailed geological mapping of the U.S., now only 11% complete, should be stepped up fast; depletion allowances for oil, gas and mineral exploration should be continued; public and private research into new methods and materials should be coordinated.

"Economic Nonsense." But no matter how much conservation is achieved, or how many new materials and methods are found, says the commission, "self-sufficiency for many materials is impossible; for many others it is economic nonsense." Part of the nonsense derives from high protective tariffs and "Buy American" policies, under which the U.S. is chewing up its own raw materials, instead of leaving them stored in the ground (the best kind of long-range stockpile) and filling its needs abroad from nations anxious to sell. The nation's petroleum reserves, for example, were depleted 8% in 1950, compared to a 3% drop in the rest of the free world.

To halt this drain, the commission recommends that Congress 1) repeal the "Buy American" act, "a relic of depression psychology"; 2) eliminate the high protective tariffs on vital foreign industrial materials, e.g., cobalt, columbium, even without reciprocal action from abroad; and 3) approve the St. Lawrence Seaway project to get quick access to Labrador's rich iron-ore deposits and a new hydroelectric power source.

Many of the commission's suggestions may fall on deaf ears in Congress. Just last week Congress shelved the St. Lawrence Seaway plan again. But the fat years of the U.S. have ended; even Congress will have to shape its legislation to the possible lean years ahead.

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