Who Likes Ike?

A public-opinion poll, as the nation learned in 1948, is not a precision instrument for measuring political sentiment. But until somebody finds an accurate gauge, the polls will have their place in political analysis, because they can describe certain situations better than pre-poll punditry ever could.

Pollster George Gallup has just published four polls which throw a lot of light on the presidential campaign of 1952. They do not tell the ending, but they outline the plot.

P: In one poll, Gallup asked: "Which national political party -- the Republican or Democratic -- do you think is best for people like yourself?" Forty-one percent thought the Democratic Party best, 32% said Republican, 18% saw no difference, and 9% said they didn't know.

P: Another Gallup poll disclosed that Truman's popularity, which reached a low of 23% in November, had taken a turn for the better. The new figure: 25%.

The first poll is a reminder of one of 1952's prime political facts: the Democrats are still the leading party: four voters identify their interests with the Democrats for every three who look to the Republicans. The second confirms suspicions that Truman, with his extraordinary political bounce, may be able to recover from 1951's scandals. At least, the Republicans cannot count on the scandals to win the election.

To win, the G.O.P. needs an overwhelming majority of the independent voters, of whom there are now about 15 million in the U.S. Which of the possible G.O.P. candidates has the most appeal to independents? Gallup's sampling of independents on this question shows:

Eisenhower 42%

Taft 16%

Warren 14%

MacArthur 12%

Stassen 9%

Dewey 4%

Don't Know 3%

This poll confirms what most political observers have been saying for months--that Ike can win more independents than any other Republican in sight. (He can probably detach more Democrats, too.)

Republicans, faced with these facts, might be expected to swing more & more to Ike. Gallup's evidence, however, shows a trend in the opposite direction.

Gallup asked Republican voters to name their choice for the Republican presidential nominee. The answers:

Eisenhower 33%

Taft 33%

MacArthur 14%

Warren 8%

Stassen 5%

Dewey 5%

Don't Know 2%

The tie with Eisenhower represented a long and important gain by Taft. A Gallup poll of Republicans in November 1949 showed 25% for Ike and 15% for Taft. By September 1950, the general had shot up to 42% and the Senator was still at 15%. Then Taft began to rise, and Eisenhower started down. By last April it was 38-22 for Ike; in December it was 30-28. The new result indicated that Ike's announcement of willingness to accept a Republican draft did not cause the great shift his way which some pundits had expected. He gained three percentage points while Taft gained five.

The Ike managers concede that most of the Republican leaders are for Taft. The people, they say, are for Ike. But the Republican segment of the people shows no overwhelming enthusiasm for Ike, even though many of them realize that Ike is the sharpest Republican candidate with Democrats and Independents.

This tends to prove that voters do not pick presidential candidates by the simple standard on which bettors pick race horses --the one most likely to win.

Or it may prove that the Republicans have taken over from the pre-Roosevelt Democrats their famous ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

As the G.O.P. convention draws near, a lot of Republicans may feel more strongly that the first test of a candidate is ability to attract those essential independent and Democratic votes. Up to now, that is not the dominant mood of either the party leadership or the rank & file.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.