Monday, Nov. 06, 1950
About 1/4 Inch
The political prophets, haunted by the memory of 1948, tiptoed into the homestretch of the 1950 election with bated breaths. Party bosses made only the modest kind of claims. Apparently they were afraid that too much optimism might cause party workers to relax. The great looming doubt was the sleeper vote. But some prognosticators put their necks out about 1 inch. Some necks showing:
P: Statistician Louis Bean, an Agriculture Department economist who charts elections as a hobby: "This is still a Democratic year with Republicans likely to make approximately normal mid-term gains in both houses of Congress--but Democrats to retain control." To gain control, Republicans would have to keep the 169 seats they now hold in the House, pick up 49 more, pick up seven more seats-in the Senate.
P: The Gallup Poll: 43% of the people favor Democrats, 42% favor Republicans, 15% are undecided. The poll also showed that 59% of the electorate or 57,500,000 people would not bother to vote.
P:Long Island's Congressman Leonard W. Hall, chairman of the G.O.P. House campaign committee: "A net gain of 30 seats in the House for Republicans ... If indicated widespread resentment" against the Administration develops, "Republicans will capture the House."
P: Senator Owen Brewster, chairman of the Senate Republican campaign committee: Republicans are certain to pick up Senate seats now held by Democrats in Pennsylvania, Idaho and California, plus one of the two at stake in Connecticut. Republicans may even capture Utah, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, Maryland, Nevada and Washington, and the other seat in Connecticut.
P: A coony, but anonymous Democratic bigwig made a personal three-state poll on Senate races, returned to Washington convinced that Democrat Benton would lose in Connecticut, that Democrat Lehman would win in New York. "I just don't know what to think about Ohio."
P: Senator Clinton Anderson, acting chairman of the Democratic National Committee: Democrats will have no trouble in retaining control of Congress; in the House, they may lose or gain anywhere up to 15 seats; in the Senate, they may lose Pennsylvania (Myers) and California (Helen Douglas), but will hold everything else, and may even pick up Ohio (Ferguson over Taft) and Colorado (Carroll over Millikin).
P: Harry Truman (about the only man to put his neck way out): a landslide for the Democrats.
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