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Since his overthrow five years ago by a Brazilian army clique, ex-Dictator Getulio Vargas has lived the quiet life of a gentleman gaucho on his estancia in Rio Grande do Sul. To visitors he spoke of his ranch as "this secluded spot so remote from political agitation." He smoked long cigars, wore a cowboy's bombachas, tended his cattle, and waited.

The wait seemed over last week, and the Vargas ranch was the country's center of political agitation. Question of the hour: Would the ex-dictator, now 67, choose to run in October's presidential election?

Seven executive committeemen of Vargas' Labor Party flew south to his estancia to tell him that their convention would nominate him this week. Vargas' reply was characteristically enigmatic. He would accept, he said, if the two other major political parties, the Social Democrats and National Democratic Union, could not agree on a joint candidate. If he really had a candidate of his own in mind, most likely the man was able Oswaldo Aranha, his onetime Foreign Minister. But many Brazilians seemed to think that Getulio was maneuvering for his own return to power.

Led by President Eurico Caspar Dutra (who may not succeed himself), the Social Democrats (PSD) had nominated short, affable Federal Deputy Cristiano Machado, 56. An engineer by training, Machado's main qualifications were that he came from politically pivotal Minas Gerais and that he had practically no enemies. Outside his home state, he was almost unknown. The conservative National Democratic Union (UDN) had also made its choice: Brigadeiro Eduardo Gomes, 54, hero of an unsuccessful 1922 uprising and the man whom Dutra beat in 1945.

Vargas' popular strength appeared to be growing steadily. Ordinary Brazilians, burdened by inflation, had developed a strong nostalgia for the good old days under Getulio. Little posters were appearing on the walls everywhere: "Bread 10-c- 1940--Bread 32-c- 1950." Even the army showed some signs of returning to Vargas' side. In the election of officers last month at Rio's Club Militar (a social center to which most army officers belong), the regular anti-Vargas slate was defeated. The winning faction made a point of saying that they would not object to the ex-President's return, if he were constitutionally chosen.

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