Loitering Polio

The polio bug is supposed to vamoose at the first frost. But this year polio is breaking the rules. California, particularly, was worried as it totted up late fall cases--as many as 140 new cases in one week.

Why? Most Californians blamed the unusually warm weather, pointed to a drop in cases after the arrival of cold rains and frosty mornings. But public health officials in Washington doubted the weather explanation. California wasn't the only state with loitering polio. North Carolina reported 24 new cases in the week ending Dec. 11 (last year there were five in the comparable week; in 1946, two). Cases went up, too, in Texas, Georgia, Minnesota, Iowa.

No matter what the explanation, the 1948 epidemic would go down in the official statistics as one of the worst in history. Through Dec. 11, the U.S. Public Health Service had received reports of 27,032 cases, close to the alltime record of 27,363 cases (from a smaller population) for the full year 1916. But was it really as bad as it looked? The experts were not sure. Diagnosis and reporting of polio are better than they used to be: years ago doctors recognized only cases that resulted in paralysis; now they can often spot the milder cases that used to be confused with grippe, and the record is more exact.

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