Tremors

Outwardly France was calm. Bitter winter was at hand, but so long as the soft autumn days lasted, people tried to forget. Madame Suzanne Schreiber, attending the annual Radical Party Congress in Nice, splashed like hundreds of others in the sea. As the Paris art season opened, Modernist Painter Man Ray's Le Beau Temps (Fair Weather) caused a mild buzz. A world congress of magicians bemused the Paris public in acts--one of which, said a wag, should be called the comrade and the fellow traveler. On Montmartre the celebration of the grape harvest turned into a fancy dress carnival.

But while Frenchmen frolicked, the epicenter of Western Europe's crisis shifted to France. Henceforth the tremors would come more & more quickly.

The French crisis was twofold--economic and political. With the country facing economic crackup (TIME, Sept. 22), Premier Paul Ramadier's Cabinet met five times last week. Each time the ministers separated without having found a solution. The crisis was directly caused by France's inability to pay for basic imports (coal, wheat, gasoline and fats).

De Gaulle or Communism? The political crisis was stepped up by the nationwide municipal elections (Oct. 19). Who would win, Charles de Gaulle's R.P.F. (Rassemblement du Peuple Franc,ais) or the Communists? If the R.P.F. won, De Gaulle would sooner or later come to power and move against the Communists. They would be faced with a hard choice: submission and virtual extinction or defiance and civil war. Russia would be faced with an even harder choice: should she support the French Communist Party with arms, or lose one of her biggest fifth columns in Europe.

The menacing meaning of a Communist election victory was pointed out in an editorial in Paris' conservative Figaro: "It should be noted what the consequences of the conquest of power by the Communists in France would be for world strategy. The Soviet Union [would be] mistress of the European continent. . . . The Anglo-American position in Germany . . . would be encircled from the rear; the Mediterranean artery would be cut . . . while Soviet submarine and air bases would be established at Brest and St. Nazaire, at Casablanca and Dakar. . . . Now it is likely that the Soviet Union, ill recovered from the terrible blows of war . . . does not wish a test of arms in the immediate future.... It is therefore essential that the French Communists now keep and increase their strength with the voters, hold to their posts in the administration and regain their place in the Government. . . . A policy of sabotage . . . is essential [for them] to keep France in a state of revolutionary tension. . . ."

Power by Easter. Meanwhile De Gaulle had reached the climax of a 16-month political campaign. Cried he: "The future belongs to those who want to grasp it... ." At a by-election in the Canton of Isigny. Department of Calvados, the R.P.F. candidate polled 2,438 votes against a combined Socialist-Communist vote of only 909. Cabled TIME Correspondent Andre Laguerre:

De Gaulle expects to return to power by next Easter at the latest. He thinks the economic crisis may oblige him to return this winter. He would rather not take over before Christmas, when conditions are likely to be at their worst, but is willing to do so if that will keep out the Communists.

It would not be necessary to have a coup d'etat or a civil war for De Gaulle to return. Constitutionally, President of the Republic Auriol can invite any Frenchman to form a Government. De Gaulle will make a condition of his return that the Constitution give greater authority to the executive (or that the Assembly be dissolved after voting him emergency powers). Main points of the policy he would put into effect:

1) Return to free enterprise and abolition of state control everywhere except where continued penury necessitates rationing.

2) A deflationary policy at home, involving rigorous austerity measures and slashing of Government expenditures.

3) Support of the Marshall Plan, plus application of what is known as the Monnet Plan for industrialization of France (to be floated by private U.S. investments).

4) A strong pro-American, anti-Soviet foreign policy. If the Communists were to sabotage this policy, De Gaulle would not hesitate to outlaw the Communist Party.

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