28,200 Opinions

What happens to business depends a good deal on what businessmen think will happen to it. To find out what businessmen think, FORTUNE decided to publish a semi-annual "Executive Forecast," based on a poll of 28,200 business leaders.

The first poll, in the August issue of FORTUNE, was on the question: Will there be a recession? About two-thirds of management thought that by the end of 1947 there would be a mild general decline--between 5 and 15% in the Federal Reserve Index of Industrial Production. Yet, paradoxically, a majority of executives in manufacturing, transportation, utilities and construction expected their own gross sales to be at least as high as in the booming first half of the year. A majority also expected a 5-to-15% drop in the cost of living, but only a minority expected to reduce their own prices.

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