No Improvement

After balancing the good news and the bad, CPA Administrator John D. Small this week found little to cheer about in U.S. industrial production in September. His discouraging conclusions: 1) September production was no higher than August; 2) there will be no important increases in production for the rest of this year.

For Houses. Lumber production for September was three billion board feet, 14% less than in August. A decline in production of other much-needed housing materials--brick & tile, plumbing fixtures, gypsum board--was partially offset by an increase in production of hardwood flooring, cement, clay sewer pipe, cast-iron soil pipe, and asphalt roofing.

For Consumers. In consumer durables, there was a decrease in production of autos (239,000 v. 241,000 in August), trucks (down 13%), gas ranges (10%), electric ranges (7%), and domestic radios (12%). There were increases in the number of sewing machines (up 21% over August), vacuum cleaners (12%), refrigerators (7%), and electric irons (5%).

Most discouraging of all was the lack of progress in breaking some of the worst bottlenecks. Item: freight-car output had slipped 15%. Fractional horsepower motors were being turned out at record speed. But the backlog of unfilled orders was still equal to 21 months' production. As for the steel shortage, CPA said with exaggerated pessimism: demand will exceed supply "for several years."

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