The Liberals' Problem

Like the survivor of an accident who carefully feels out his sore spots, the Liberal Party went over itself last week. The contusions and abrasions were frightful. There had been not one accident, but three.

There had been the by-election in Pontiac, Quebec, lost to a Social Crediter, and the by-elections in Toronto-Parkdale and Portage la Prairie last week, lost to the Progressive Conservatives. The worst bump was raised by Portage. The Liberals had not only fought hardest there to keep the seat, Liberal for the last eleven years, but the election had been decided on an important national issue (TIME, Aug. 5). The farmers had shown that they did not like the wheat agreement, under which Canadians sold wheat to Britain at far less than the world price. Yet the Liberals were stuck with it.

The Conservatives had made and would make the most of this issue. That they had done so well already was due to Conservative Leader John Bracken. Cried Toronto's Globe & Mail: "A personal Victory for Mr. John Bracken." It was indeed--and more. For the second time since he has led the party, Bracken had stumped so effectively that he had licked the Liberals on their home field. Many Conservatives, who had been lukewarm about Bracken's leadership, were now sold on him.

No one was suggesting that the Conservatives (with only 67 seats in the House of Commons) were ready to take over the country tomorrow. But the Liberals' control of the House was now slim. In the 245-member House, there was one seat left vacant by the death of Richelieu-Vercheres' Pierre Cardin. There was one absentee (Communist M.P. Fred Rose, jailed in the spy trial). The Liberals claimed that they could count on 125 votes. But it was a hard political fact that the Liberals had a solid majority in the House only with the help of splinter groups and the CCF's 28 seats.

One result would be that the reorganization of the Liberal Cabinet, promised by Prime Minister King before the House reassembles in January, would now have to be little more than a mild reshuffle. He could not appoint any Cabinet member to a job which would take him out of the House and cause another by-election.

Another result would be that the Liberals would have to keep the CCF pleased. This might prove difficult. For the CCF is strongest among farmers, where the Liberals were losing popularity. And in keeping the CCF pleased, the Liberals would probably lose the rest of the country. Said the Ottawa Journal, "What we face ... is the danger involved in a dying government which can prolong its life only by the grace of the CCF--by progressive surrender to socialism."

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