What, No Fire Sales?

With a perfectly straight face, business analysts Standard & Poor's Corp. recently predicted: "If small business should encounter inventory losses [after war's end], the moral hazard would increase sharply. Hence, fire underwritings . . . will probably result in a further loss this year."

By last week there were no signs of a wave of fires or fire sales in shops. Many a delighted merchant watched his sales curve upwards, despite the closing of war plants and the rising pool of jobless. It was still a race between the harried merchant searching for goods to sell, and impatient shoppers grabbing at goods of any kind at any price.

No Bargains. Across the nation, storekeepers reported an unabated demand for high-priced clothing and accessories. Women's $100 fall suits were in good demand. Atlanta's fashionable J. P. Allen store sold more $100 women's suits last month than in any prewar year.

But there was a noticeable drop in the sales of fur coats and jewelry. Merchants thought this was due more to the rumor that the 20% luxury tax will soon be removed than to a conservative trend in buying. Exception: in Denver, fur coats priced up to $6,000 each were selling like hotcakes.

Not many merchants will be stuck with unsalable stocks of ersatz goods. Reason: they have no stocks left. Said one retail store manager: "Our stocks are as clean as a hound's tooth."

Stocks of clothing are very low, will probably be completely sold out by the time better quality goods make their long-awaited appearance. Furniture departments had only a minimum stock of rock-hard springless chairs, couches and beds. One Detroit store ruthlessly cleaned out its entire line of cardboard toys, burned them as trash.

Merry Christmas? Nor are retailers, already thinking about Christmas, sure how merry it will be. Many shelves will still be bare.

Biggest disappointment of all may be toys. Last week, as toymakers who have been busy on war work hustled to reconvert, they saw little chance of getting into full production of metal and mechanical toys in time for Christmas.

The Christmas outlook for other types of merchandise: P: Men's clothing will still be very scarce. Discharged veterans will snap up the increased production of suits, shirts and shorts.

P: There will be nylon stockings, but not nearly enough to go around.

P: Low-priced clothing for women, children and infants will be scarce.

P: Small stocks of sheets and pillow cases will be available. (Bath towels are expected back by Thanksgiving.)

P: The first washing machines, radios, refrigerators and other durable goods will be in the stores, but they will be only a trickle.

One cheerful Christmas note: there will be plenty of greeting cards and fancy gift wrappings.

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