"Fill 'er Up"

In Trinidad, Colo, a motorist chirped "Fill 'er up," started to roll away with a brimful tank of unrationed gasoline. Then the tank fell off.

The U.S. citizen could find some symbolism in the Trinidad incident. Official Washington, dazed by the swift shift to reconversion, was certain of one thing: the tank was filling up, reconversion was happening. But how smoothly the engine would run, how well the tank would stay put, how far the tired tires would hold up on the way to the good old days, was still largely a matter of guestimating.

Superoptimists in Washington and in industry guessed it would be a swift trip, perhaps no more than 60 days, to all but the details of prewar normalcy. The cautious knew that they did not know, and admitted it. But between doubt and unbridled cheer there were some reasonable estimates of what the U.S. could expect. Firm facts and best bets:

Meat. Best home news of the week to many a citizen was Agriculture Secretary Clinton Anderson's prediction that beef would go off the ration lists within a few weeks. Reasons: 1) a heavy run of cattle; 2) Army suspension of "set-aside" orders by which it got first call. The pork outlook is not so bright, but Clinton Anderson thought that all meat rationing .might be ended by fall; if not, point values at least could be lowered.

Butter. Butter production has been picking up steadily, but is still insufficient; butter may not come off the ration lists for several months.

Sugar. Probably the last to go ration-free, perhaps not before 1947.

Canned & Processed Foods. Now ration free, but under heavy run by housewives. There should be plenty for all soon.

Automobiles. There are about 7,000,000 fewer on the road than on Dec. 7, 1941. With quota restrictions lifted, Detroit thinks the industry can turn out 600,000 by April 1946 and probably 3,000,000 more that year. How soon can Mr. Customer go into a salesroom, point to one and get it? Not for many months. Post-rationing orders are already piling up with dealers.

Tires. All rationing probably off within four months. Passenger-car tires will be synthetic, but good.

Gasoline. No more rationing. Good quality (76 to 80 octane) gasoline should be on the market within ten days.

Housing. The Federal Public Housing Authority expects that 400,000 houses will be started between this week and July 1, 1946. Another authority predicts building at a $700-million annual rate within a few months, and a $1 billion rate by next summer.

Appliances. Electric refrigerators, washing machines, electric irons, toasters will come up fast after Oct. 1.

Pots & Pans. Fast starters; track clear.

Radios. No production problems, but heavy demand. Some television sets probable in six months.

Alarm Clocks. After October they should be available in quantity.

Clothing. Larger quantities soon of popular-priced cotton dresses and children's items. Much larger quantities of cottons over the next three months, and of wools over the next four months. Worsteds may not be plentiful until spring. Nylons (but not plentifully) by Christmas.

Shoes. Army cutbacks equal ten million civilian pairs a month. End of rationing probable in October.

Fuel. Army releases end the threat of a real crisis, but the Solid Fuels Administration reports the shortage may continue to some extent. Fuel oil should be no problem, unless transport makes it one.

Telephones. Applications for phones--about 2,600,000--should be filled by early 1946, if the switchboard-equipment shortage does not interfere.

Spirits. Gin, rum, brandy, blended whiskey plentiful right away. Straight bourbon and Scotch 18 months to two years away.

Cigarets. More service cutbacks assure end of the shortage all over the U.S. In New York City, early to feel the easing, some retailers offer cartons.

Cameras & Film. Cameras and projectors (but not advanced models) plentiful by spring. By December there should be something like normal supplies of film and photographic paper.

Travel. ODT refuses to guess when Pullman restrictions will be lifted. Others' guesses: 60 to 90 days. Air priorities, tighter now, will continue until airlines get more craft and crews. The shipping squeeze precludes much weekend cruising or transatlantic traveling. More bus equipment is on the way. Toledo to Topeka by taxi is again possible--if the tank stays on.

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