Guesses & Explosives

At Okinawa, where they lost 4,072 planes in 86 days, did the Japanese "shoot the works?" Had they thrown (and thrown away) their entire air force at the U.S.

fleet? Air admirals like Aubrey Fitch, back in Washington from the Pacific, flatly said "yes." But from the Pentagon across the Potomac, Under Secretary of War Robert Patterson said "no" -- the Japs' failure to retaliate against Admiral Halsey's Third Fleet and the Superfortresses merely meant that they were hoarding "plenty" of planes against invasion. Another air admiral, DeWitt Clinton ("Duke") Ramsey, new Fifth Fleet chief of staff, defined "plenty." He estimated the enemy hoard at 9,000 planes.

Military observers in Washington agreed, cited a significant parallel: last September, when Admiral Halsey began pounding the Philippines, the Jap flyers refused to come up and fight. But in October, at Leyte and in January at Luzon the Japs had plenty of planes ready for the invasion ships.

How Much Longer? No less a personage than China's Premier T. V. Soong, returning to Chungking from Moscow, predicted that the Japs would quit this year or in early 1946. On the other hand, rumors of imminent peace which gushed from various world capitals caused top side Army and Navy figures to repeat their warnings that the war would probably run until the end of 1946.

In a broadcast, Fleet Admiral Nimitz called the current period "the pre-invasion stage." One of his amphibious commanders, Vice Admiral Daniel Barbey, had a sort of timetable: "We can complete plans for a small landing within 30 days; for a larger one, maybe 60 days, and for a really big one in 90 days." How Much Bombing? Most of these statements were the by-product of press conferences.

More important -- particularly to the Big Three meeting in Potsdam -- was the weight of high explosives being dumped on Japanese targets. Halsey roamed ostentatiously up & down the Emperor's coastline in the foul weather which seems to attach itself to the Third Fleet. The B-29s from the Marianas struck two great blows, firing four cities each time.

In their biggest strike to date, more than 600 Superforts took off in a single flight. Two announcements last week gave the Japs even more to worry about: 1) Lieut. General "Jimmy" Doolittle's Eighth Air Force B-29s were due on Okinawa in mid-August; 2) R.A.F. Air Vice Marshal Sir Hugh Lloyd had been in Guam, presumably intent on fulfilling Winston Churchill's promise to send British land-based planes into the Jap war.

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