Detroit's Timetable

The War Production Board took a deep plunge last week, and came up with the answer to the biggest immediate question about reconversion -- how many automobiles, and how soon? The answer: 200,000 new cars this year, 400,000 cars in the first quarter of 1946.

This guess -- and WPB did not claim that its figures were more than a carefully calculated guess -- based the number of cars on the amount of steel scheduled for release to civilian industries after midsummer. Out of 2 1/2 million tons of steel that will be available from military cutbacks, WPB Boss Krug estimated that the auto industry will get about 300,000 tons, enough for 200,000 cars. The balance of the steel will go to manufacturers of railroad cars, farm machinery, refrigerators, washing machines, etc.

The yardstick of 1 1/2 tons of steel per automobile was the best measure of production that WPB had to work with. But a sudden boost in military demand for steel would knock the automobile production schedule galley-west. Contrariwise, sharp and not wholly unexpected cuts in military needs later this year would mean more steel for automobiles.

A Question of Timing. Automen thought that WPB's conservative figures were close to the mark. They had to find the solution to more problems than the steel supply before they could count on fast-moving assembly line operations. Now auto manufacturers had a hunting license, but they still needed to know how soon: 1) their military orders would be sharply cut; 2) they could clear the acres of special purpose Government-owned tools from their plants; 3) machine-tool manufacturers could deliver the some $40 million of new machinery needed to get back to the manufacture of 1942 models; 4) hundreds of subcontractors, each with baffling reconversion problems of their own, could start the endless flow of wheels, tires, textiles, special metals, the other 10,000-odd parts needed to put an automobile together.

No automan last week would bet a dime on the accuracy of his answers to these questions.

Who Will Be First? The small number of cars in sight for 1945 dulled the competitive urge among automen to be first. The market was so much bigger than expected production that the exact date of production would not affect the prospect of sales. But some manufacturers were better prepared than others to swing into peacetime work.

In Manhattan last week Packard Motor Car Co.'s Vice President James H. Marks hopefully predicted that Packard's 1942 model would be among the first new cars in auto showrooms. Last year Packard bought a new plant, has moved a large part of its war production away from its original auto plant. Thus Packard has the floor space needed to start automobile production when the necessary steel is available.

In Detroit the betting was that Hudson would win the race among the independent manufacturers to market the first car, and that, of the Big Three producers, Ford would lead General Motors and Chrysler.

Of all the automobile makers, Willys-Overland is least worried about reconverting. Willys' chairman, shrewd Ward Murphey Canaday, will switch production to a slightly modified version of the wartime jeep. Canaday is enthusiastic about the market for jeeps on the 6 million U.S. farms. The export markets look good, too. Canaday has signed one contract with a South American importer for 5,000 postwar jeeps. He has letters from 6,000 U.S. servicemen who have fervently announced they want to become jeep distributors when they get home.

Hard Row for Labor. With good reason, labor was disappointed in WPB's reconversion timetable. In Detroit last week approximately 9,000 workers in auto plants were subject to being laid off as war contracts were cut back. These will bring the total unemployed auto workers in the Detroit area to 40,000. From now on, as more & more war jobs end, Detroit's unemployment will mount higher & higher --until automobile production hits its stride of 6 million cars a year. From the standpoint of employment, Detroit and the motor industry are staring reconversion in the face.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.