Outlook

If the 1945 demand for metals for the stepped-up armament program is as large as seems likely, most producers face their hardest year since hectic 1942. Last week WPB, in a metal forecast for the year, explained why.

Steel. The overall need for finished steel may not exceed the estimated 62 million tons produced in 1944, but war's demand for shell billets, for wire rope, communications wire and castings will cut deep into mill production schedules for rails, structural steel, tubes and pipe. Large new orders for steel landing mats, plus pressure on shipbuilders to launch nine million tons of merchant ships before June, will keep plate and strip mills working at peak capacity.

Copper. Supply & demand will just about balance if the U.S. is able to: 1) keep imports at the rate of about one million tons a year; 2) find 4,000 more workers for Western mines, smelters and refiners so that domestic production does not slip below 936,000 tons. Even so, there will be at least 11% less copper than a year ago.

Aluminum. The much-publicized surplus of ingots piled up last year will disappear as aircraft production moves upward. Military demand for fabricated aluminum will be 50% greater than a year ago. Last week Alcoa snapped shut its books to civilian orders for second-quarter delivery this year, dashed the hopes of manufacturers for aluminum to produce a large part of WPB's $149 million "spot authorized" civilian production.

Magnesium. Plentiful. A large part of earlier production of magnesium went into incendiary bombs, of which the U.S. now has an ample supply.

Tin. Tight. The Government-owned stockpile will last for nine months at the current rate of consumption.

Lead. Very tight. Smelting and refining capacity is sufficient, but many more workers are needed in the lead mines. Curtailment of lead supplies for civilian use may mean fewer auto batteries.

Zinc. Plentiful.

Iron Ore. In a supplementary report, WPB took a gloomy view of the ore reserves at the lower Lake ports. By April 1, ore stockpiles will be down to a low of 16 million tons v. 34 million tons in 1942. Reasons: earlier-than-usual closing of navigation on the Lakes last November, plus the removal of obsolete ore carriers from the Lakes. More than ever before, steelmen hope for an early spring this year.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.