War & Peace

As the 3,200 members of the National Association of Manufacturers trooped into Manhattan's Waldorf-Astoria hotel last week, the passwords were War & Reconversion. But as they sat down to breakfast, the first meeting of their 49th annual convention, they were told, in no uncertain terms, that the only job of U.S. industry now is war, not peace.

They heard this straight from the mouth of Lieut. General Brehon B. Somervell, hard-bitten boss of the Army Service Forces, who gravely noted that current production of munitions is lagging behind consumption (see U.S. AT WAR). There was worse to come. Said he: "Within the past 90 days we have had to increase our estimate of the production ... to fight Japan after Germany is defeated. . . . It will cost us $71 billion a year." This was the first official word to U.S. business that the cutbacks in war production after V-E day have shrunk from the 40% which WPB once promised to a slim 15-20%. (Actually General Somervell had overstated the case by lumping in all the costs of ending the German war, contract terminations, etc.)

Then Peace. In some confusion, the NAMsters hastily affirmed their full support to the war. Then the ponderous convention machinery, which had been geared up to reconversion long before the talk of new production kinks arose, rolled on into the postwar world.

Out came the flood of speeches (84 in all) and the confident prediction of N.A.M. itself, based on its survey of 2,000 industries engaged in reconversion planning along with their war work, that the jobs of reconversion and postwar employment are less fearsome, the closer they come. N.A.M. predicted that: 1) 95% of all U.S. industry could complete reconversion within eight weeks; 2) 76% of the manufacturers could reach peak production in that time; 3) postwar employment in manufacturing would be 30% higher than it was in 1939.

Wishful Thinking. It remained for N.A.M.'s retiring president, Robert M. Gaylord, to strip some of the rosy talk from all these postwar predictions, uncover some hard, grey facts. He turned a fishy eye on guessers of postwar national income. Said he: "In 1929, 48,000,000 people worked a little more than 48 hours a week (2,304 million hours a week in all) and . . . produced a national income of $83,000,000." Now, there are predictions that 60,000,000 people working 40 hours a week can produce $200 billions a year, "that 2,400 million hours a week, or only 4% more than we worked in 1929, can produce 240% more national income. Let's think straight. If they are real dollars we shall have to buy and build production facilities far more efficient than we now have. This will take time, thrift, investment and hard work. High income will not be realized by wishful thinking."

The Job to Do. NAMsters' hair was further ruffled by N.A.M. Director Herman W. Steinkraus, president of Bridgeport Brass Co., who made the point that much wishful thinking about the postwar has been done by N.A.M. itself. Director Steinkraus sorrowfully reported that the U.S. worker "looks mainly to the Government to solve" postwar job problems. Said he: "Workers, both union and nonunion, voted 2-to-1 [in opinion polls] that they believe the heads of unions are more interested in the personal welfare of the working man than the heads of their own companies are. ... It is apparent that the day when workers looked to their employers for leadership is passing and will pass completely if something isn't done about it."

How to Do It? N.A.M. thought it knew what should be done. This week it is launching a $1,000,000 advertising campaign to sell N.A.M.'s brand of free enterprise (which it describes as rugged individualism expressed in homely words) to the U.S.

As part of this strategy, N.A.M. elected Ira Mosher, 57, a chunky, black-browed ex-bookkeeper, into the nonpaying president's job. The appeal of Mosher, N.A.M. hopes, is that he is a small businessman, owner of the Russell Harrington Cutlery Co. of Southbridge, Mass. (300 employes). Mosher also, until last July, was general manager of American Optical Co.

At his first press conference, N.A.M.'s new president sounded no ringing phrases to help business sell itself. Nor did he say much of anything else. He dodged most questions with a caution rare even for press-shy NAMsters, even went off the record to get off the chestnut: "Actions speak louder than words."

Those who always expect something exciting from N.A.M. and are almost always disappointed looked hopefully at the final job of the convention, the drafting of a six-point program for U.S. business. Again they were disappointed. There were generalities against cartels, in favor of free enterprise, good government, a sound currency system, etc. But on one of the prime postwar problems for U.S. business--the protective tariff--there was not a word.

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