The Tide

A Republican tide is running. So concluded the FORTUNE Survey after studying its latest U.S. results.

Franklin Roosevelt still had a lead just barely big enough (53%-to-47%) to insure Term IV--if the election were held now. (To win, any Democratic candidate must have perhaps as much as 52% of the popular vote, because of votes "wasted" in the Solid South.) This lead had been whittled down from a high of 57.1% in August.

The pollsters found that the Dewey vote was just about twice as firm as the Roosevelt vote. For every Dewey supporter who might be persuaded to change his mind between now and election, there were two such Roosevelt supporters. The poll showed that from this point on, any positive statement that Tom Dewey makes, on any side of any major issue, will almost certainly gain him votes. Conversely, any stand Mr. Roosevelt takes on either side of any major issue will tend to lose him votes.

Any real breakthrough of American Armies in Germany might shift substantial quantities of U.S. voters to Dewey. An end to the war, even if it happened as late as Nov. 6, might be just about enough to send Dewey to the White House.

The poll indicated that the election would most likely be close.

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