Post-Wisconsin Survey

Within a few days after Wendell Willkie's withdrawal from the Republican Presidential race, interviewers from the research firm of Elmo Roper began asking questions in all sections of the U.S. for the regular FORTUNE Survey of Public Opinion. The questioning ended April 15. TIME herewith continues its new practice of reporting the most newsworthy results of this survey immediately upon their tabulation.

Governor Thomas E. Dewey's position in the Republican mind was at last solidifying. Those who said they would vote for the best Republican they could think of rather than for Roosevelt were asked, "Who is this best man?" Here are their answers, before & after the Wisconsin primary:

Feb. 15 Apr. 15

Dewey 36.9 50.3

Willkie 19.6 9.3

MacArthur 8.5 7.8

Bricker 6.2 4.6

Stassen 2.3 4.9

Others 3.6 3.8

Don't Know 22.9 19.3

In disposing of Willkie, Dewey also made some progress against Roosevelt. Asked how they would vote if the war were over in Europe but still continuing in the Pacific at election time, a sampling of the entire electorate replied as follows:

Feb. 15 Apr. 15

Roosevelt 60.2 58.1

Dewey 28.4 35.1

Don't Know 11.4 6.8

Dewey shows particular strength: 1) among men (women give F.D.R. a vote 2% above the average); 2) among people over 35 (younger people give F.D.R. 6% above average); 3) among the upper economic third of the nation; 4) in the northeast --i.e., north of the Ohio, east of the Mississippi.

Last week Dr. George Gallup also released a poll completed after the Wisconsin primary, showed Roosevelt leading Dewey by 55%-to-45% after eliminating "about one in ten" who were undecided. In this question voters were asked to assume that the war would still be on. But when Gallup asked voters whom they would vote for if the war were over by election time, Dewey led Roosevelt by a wide margin: 58%-to-42%, after eliminating the undecided. FORTUNE'S most closely comparable question shows a near-standoff: 44% for Roosevelt, 43.5% for the "best Republican." But FORTUNE'S question had the proviso "if the war, is over but the peace terms not settled." By so much is the war and its complete winding up the dominating factor of the 1944 Presidential election.

A strong Republican trend, acknowledged by most pollsters and political observers, crops up whenever the circumstances of war are left in the background. It appears most clearly in the answers to a Gallup question assuming that the war in Europe will be nearly over on Election Day, but mentioning neither the Pacific war nor the peace terms. Here Roosevelt wins by 51%-to-49%. But a breakdown by regions shows him leading Dewey only in the Solid South. In terms of an actual election this would mean a Dewey victory, since a Democrat with a useless surplus of Southern votes must get about 52% of the national popular vote in order to win. The figures:

Roosevelt Dewey

New Eng. & Mid. Atl. 50 50

East Central 48 52

West Central 45 55

South 68 32

Far West 48 52

But the various assumptions that pollsters make about war and peace serve only to point possible trends. The state of the public mind at present is better shown by a question that allows pollees to make their own assumptions. Such a question shows that war's uncertainty is still keeping a decisive group of voters on the fence. FORTUNE'S question: "Of course no one can tell for sure as yet, but which party's candidate do you think you will probably vote for in the next Presidential election?" The answers:

Nov. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 15 Apr. 15

Democratic 39.6 40.0 41.6 42.5

Republican 34.9 37.1 32.8 34.9

Other .6 .9 .5 .6

Don't Know 24.9 22.0 25.1 22.0

One thing which four years has changed hardly at all is the people's feeling about more than two terms in the White House. In 1940, of voters polled by FORTUNE, 16% said they saw no reason at all against a third term; today 15.9% say the same about a fourth. In 1940 there were 50.1% who thought that three terms would normally be too many for one man but felt that this rule should be waived in wartime. Percentage who now think the same way about four terms: 49.2%.

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