February Survey
The latest samplings of public opinion --conducted for FORTUNE by the research firm of Elmo Roper--are presented below. FORTUNE studies long-term trends of public opinion. But sometimes, particularly during political campaigns when opinion veers swiftly, the value of survey results depends on quick publication. Therefore, TIME, because of its fast printing schedule, will undertake to distribute the results of those FORTUNE surveys--political and otherwise--which are peculiarly current. And it will continue to report as heretofore the results of other polls of interest.
As to political polls, TIME readers should be well aware that the best of surveys is in fact nothing but a factual report of public sentiment at some period before election day. A series of such surveys, beginning now when many people are not greatly interested in politics, can be a useful progressive report of the development of public sentiment. What follows is a report on the state of the public mind in mid-February.
The primer fact about U.S. political opinion in February 1944 was its fluidity: no political pectin had appeared to jell the opinion into a shape.
In answer to the question "Which party's candidate do you feel you will probably vote for in the next Presidential election?" the answers were:
Democratic 41.6 %
Republican 32.8
Other .5
Don't know 25.1
The balance of power is held by the undecided. Although the Democratic plurality has increased 2% since last November, it is not large considering that, unlike the Democrats, the Republicans still have no nominee to rally round, and also that the Democratic plurality is weighted by the lopsided Democratic vote in the South.
Changing Horses. The main vote-getting argument the Democrats now have is the objection to changing Presidents during the war. Asked to choose "between Roosevelt and the best man you can think of among the Republicans," people said:
Roosevelt Repubpublican Don't know
If war is still on in
Europe and Pacific 57.8% 30.3% 11.9%
If war is over in Europe, not in Pacific 53.4 34.9 11.7
If war is all over but peace terms are unsettled 44.2 42.8 13.0
In short, when people are reminded that on Election Day the war may still be unfinished, about half of those who did not know on the previous question, now think they will vote for Roosevelt. But when they are asked to suppose the war will be over although the peace remains to be made, the Republican showing is big enough, discounting for the Solid South, to suggest the possibility of a Republican victory. In New England, the Middle Atlantic, East North Central and Mountain States the Republicans run substantial pluralities (these pluralities do not mean the Republicans would carry every State in each group).
Republican Choices. When those who would vote for "the best man among the Republicans" were asked to name their men, Dewey was preferred to Willkie in mid-February (about the time Willkie began his campaign tour). The ups & downs of favor for the Republican candidates in recent months:
Nov. 1 Jan.l Feb. 15
Dewey 17.9 % 29.6% 36.9 %
Willkie 32.5 22.6 19.6
MacArthur 4.3 5.8 8.5
Bricker 2.8 3.4 6.2
Stassen 2.1 1.3 2.3
Taft 1.3 .8 1.1
Others 3.9 3.3 2.5
Don't Know 36.6 33.2 22.9
Taking the most favored Republican candidate and asking people if they had to choose between Roosevelt and Dewey for President--assuming that the war in Europe was over but the war in the Pacific still on--the survey found 60.2% for Roosevelt, 28.4% for Dewey and 11.4% "Don't Know."
Who's for Who? The voting tendency of various groups still retains the general complexion which it has had ever since Franklin Roosevelt took office.
> Factory workers, when confronted with the idea that the war will still be on, are about 15% stronger for Roosevelt than the general population.
> The upper economic level is 5-to-3 Republican and the upper-middle level 4-to-3 Republican. The lower-middle economic level is 4-to-3 Democratic and lowest economic level is 5-to-2 Democratic.
> MacArthur is at his strongest in the lower economic groups.
> Catholics are 5-to-2-for the Democrats. Protestants are evenly divided.
> Willkie leads Dewey only in the South Atlantic states, is next-strongest in the Middle Atlantic, has lost strength recently in New England, is further behind in the East North Central states.
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