Fifteen Months Before Election

Franklin Roosevelt and his political lieutenants last week got some food for thought.

In the pre-election-year of 1935 Frank lin Roosevelt's popularity stood at a low ebb) compared to his winning plurality in 1936. The same was true, only more so, in midsummer 1939. In both 1935 and 1939 this did not disturb Mr. Roosevelt : he has always maintained, with simple practicality, that the time to be popular is on Election Day. His political henchmen, such as Harry Hopkins, even planned it that way.

Two Gallup polls last week showed that if the 1944 election were held now, Franklin Roosevelt would win hands down and then some. In the straw balloting he led Wendell Willkie 59-to-41, New York's Governor Thomas E. Dewey, 55-to-45 (the same margin he had over Wendell Willkie in 1940). Most startling change in the President's vote-getting power: increased war popularity among upper-income groups.

If the pattern of the last two Presidential elections is repeated, either: 1) this is the President's low point and Republicans may not even carry Vermont in 1944, or 2) the President at the top of the seesaw can expect to be at the bottom on Election Day.

The polls definitely showed Tom Dewey a stronger candidate against Franklin Roosevelt than Wendell Willkie, who last week was planning forthcoming strategy with his closest advisers at his Rushville (Ind.) home. But for Republicans the lesson of the polls might likewise mean that the man to run against Mr. Roosevelt is not necessarily the Republican poll-leader of 1943.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.