Next Step?

Rome and Berlin radio broadcasters last week worked overtime giving news of Allied preparations in the Middle East for a drive toward southeastern Europe. Germany reported that Allied troops were massing in Syria. Italy reported at least one large convoy en route through the eastern Mediterranean to the Middle East. Berlin reported an order of the day by Iraq's Premier General Nuri Pasha es-Said to his troops saying that active service was approaching. Warned the Rome radio: "Large British forces are concentrating along the southern frontier of Turkey."

These were a few of the Axis rumors. There were many more, and among them, were a few facts:

> For months the British have been building up their Ninth and Tenth Armies in the Middle East.

>On the island of Cyprus, which the Germans might have taken after their conquest of Crete--but did not--an advanced offensive base has been built, with a strong air force and a garrison of ground troops, reportedly including U.S. soldiers.

>Britain last week closed the 450 mile-long border between Syria and Turkey for 48 hours. When it was reopened, certain sections remained barred to all but military personnel.

By Sea? An Allied offensive from the Middle East has two possible routes. By sea, it could skirt the south coast of Tur key, push up into the Dodecanese Islands until the Greek coast is reached. Biggest stumbling block to such an advance: the strong Axis fortress of Crete, where the Germans have two big air bases and other bases for E-boats and submarines. The Dodecanese are lightly manned; last week there were reports that the Italians were evacuating some of the southernmost islands and that Germans were moving in. The strongest of the group, the Italian-held island of Rhodes, has air bases to supplement those on Crete and could be a thorn in the Allies' side.

A seaborne Allied advance would need help from the west and south. Southern Greece, Crete and Rhodes could be swept by the Allied air forces from Sicily and the Italian boot and from Egyptian bases.

By Land? A land route to the Balkans could be followed if Turkey came into the war. It would have to be swift, for Axis armies are poised on the far side of the Dardanelles and the Bosporus and could block the Allies at these straits if they reached. them first. A land advance could succeed probably only with Turkey's permission.

Talks in Turkey. There was no open sign as yet where Turkey would stand in an Allied Middle Eastern offensive. But last week there were more indications that Turkey's unbending neutrality was bending at last, and to the Allied side.

> Prime Minister Winston Churchill's conference with Turkish political and military chiefs at Adana (TIME, Feb. 8) was followed by other visits of British air, land and sea commanders. Latest visitor was Admiral Sir John Cunningham, new British Commander in Chief in the Le vant, who last week conferred with President Ismet Inoenue and Premier Suekrue Saracoglu.

>Turkey last week recalled her Ambassador to Vichy, Behic Erkin, registering a bitter protest against Gestapo violations of her diplomatic immunity and indicating a possible break with Vichy.

> Premier Saracoglu, in a speech before the Sixth Congress of the Turkish People's Party, confirmed the establishment of a rapprochement between his country and Russia through a "series of most advanced treaties." He implied Turkey's adherence to the Atlantic Charter, pledged Anglo-Turkish friendship "for long years and in vast domains."

>Turkey recently contracted with the British for construction of deep-water piers at Alexandretta and Mersin, making these Cyprus-protected ports available to ships of large tonnage.

The Hard Axis Shell. If the Allies launch an offensive toward the Balkans they will find some tough going at the main line of defense. The Germans have not been idle. Since their fiasco in Tunisia, they have poured troops into Greece and Bulgaria and have greatly strengthened their fortifications. Allied estimates are that the Germans have 60 divisions in the Balkans, commanded by such outstanding men as Field Marshal Albert Kesselring, Air Chief of the Mediterranean; General Alexander Loehr, Commander of Balkan land forces. Top commander in the area was reported to be Field Marshal Siegmund Wilhelm Walther List, who led Hitler's Balkan offensive two years ago.

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