What Next?

The big new shortage facing the U.S. is of cotton goods. U.S. citizens might be excused for wondering whether there will be a shortage of air and water next. For years millions of Americans have been perennially sandbagged with "Buy Cotton" campaigns that have made it seem like the one inexhaustible fabric. But now, though the surplus of raw cotton is still a fact, the surplus of cotton in textile form is turning into a mirage. The components are the same as ever: lack of manpower, military demand, price ceilings at the wrong levels.

Doubts and Headlines. Last year the U.S. produced 11.25 billion yd. of cotton fabrics -- an alltime high that kept U.S. looms at practical capacity. But consumption was enormous too: the nation went into 1943 with retail stocks of fabricated cotton (2.96 billion yd.) barely equal to the year before. Government men still bravely insist that this year's production will be at least as high as 1942's, but the trade demurs: manpower is cruelly scarce, irreplaceable equipment is wearing out. Costs are up drastically and prices (except at the raw level) are fixed. None of this encourages producers to strain themselves.

The trade also doubts soothing state ments from the Army & Navy that their need for cotton textiles will be no greater than the 4.7 billion yd. -- 35% of production -- that they and Lend-Lease took last year. Last week's headlines were black with news of new orders for soldiers & sailors (who wear out clothes even faster in foreign service), new Lend-Lease de mands and new buying for the Office of Foreign Relief & Rehabilitation.

The textile industry's estimates of 1943 needs for all these essentials, run up to 9 billion yd. That would leave U.S. civilians only about five billion yd. (v. a civilian 8.9 billion yd. last year). Even this esti mate includes the entire carryover, assumes that production stays at peak besides.

Cotton Spinners. The last assumption is the one that raises eyebrows. Cotton-textile production is a case history in the pitfalls of price control. Cottons are a prime factor in the cost of living, so OPA strove to hold prices down on finished goods. Meanwhile raw cotton, not under ceilings, was imperfectly controlled by the periodic dumping of Government holdings. At the same time labor costs rose 30%. The higher wage levels didn't hold textile workers; they have gone into much better paid war jobs and have been drafted so fast that WMC last month defined them as essential civilians, froze them to their looms. But by that time a good deal of the damage was done.

The squeeze on spinners finally got so bad that Army & Navy orders went beg ging for bids. Last week OPA knuckled under, let the Army pay 6% more for combed yarns. This had a reverse result: spinners then paid no attention to civilian orders, where there were no price concessions. At week's end there was only one way out -- if Congress would stand for it: U.S. Government subsidies. Meanwhile lower civilian production will continue.

Civilians & Cotton. As with every other shortage, greedy civilians, moving in on low prices, made the cotton pinch tighter.

And, as with every other shortage, the civilian will sooner or later pay for his greed. Just when cotton goods rationing will come depends on whether the U.S. civilian from now on buys from need or from fright. But the best bet is that fright-buying has already gone so far that rationing will come by next fall, even if hoarding stops.

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