More for Civilians?

The East Coast Oil outlook is very much rosier--statistically. But oil-parched Easterners can't quite make plans for joy rides yet.

This quarter, with tank-car deliveries already above 900,000 bbl. a day, total supplies should average 1.4 million bbl. a day, only 200,000 below normal, prewar consumption. A clear surplus is visible if the savings (150,000 bbl. from conversion to other fuels, and 335,000 bbl. from gasoline and fuel-oil rationing) are subtracted from the 1.6 million bbl. prewar demand.

Further, the eastward oil flow will be swelled in two ways:

> Next summer, extension of the Big Inch to New York and Philadelphia will bring in 300,000 bbl. a day (a net addition of only 200,000 bbl., because tank cars now hauling from the Big Inch terminal at Norris City, Ill. must then go all the way to Texas). By next winter a second pipeline from Texas will add 110,000 bbl. (net), in 1944 will deliver still more.

> Rail terminals are being modernized to cut turn-around time for tank-car trains.

All this adds up to a. tidy, theoretical 400,000-bbl. surplus over domestic demand under rationing. But: Eastern fuel-oil stocks must be built up (in winter demand goes well above the annual average) and military demands will probably soar. The difference between rationed consumer demand and maximum foreseeable deliveries is only a few insignificant tanker loads a day.

Civilians can hope for two bonanzas if things pan out well: 1) an end to fuel-oil rationing (which saves 90,000 bbl. a day); 2) a return to 3 gal. of gasoline a week (the cut to 1 1/2-gal. saved at the most only 37,000 bbl.).

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