The Worst Is Always True

The U.S. citizen, a song in his heart and Pollyannery in his head, had a good laugh at Horrible Harold Ickes last year. Ickes huffed & puffed and spread the alarm, but the filling-station pumps were always full. Oil-shortage talk, after fooling nobody, finally subsided. The U.S. told itself once again that there never could be an oil shortage, and thought it would be a good idea for Mr. Ickes to resign.

Even last month, when OPA announced gasoline rationing, nobody jumped. The first headlines were scary with predictions of 2 1/2-5 gallons a week. But this time even Horrible Harold rushed into print with reassurance. Sure, there would be rationing, but nothing like that.

This week 10,000,000 Eastern Seaboard motorists lined up to get gasoline-ration books and the terrible truth. Things were not just as bad as they looked; they were worse. A third of the 10,000,000, who did not need their cars for business or to get to work, got "A" cards: three gallons a week. The rest got a little more. Even these rations were good only until July 1; then the amounts may be revised.

This time, when Leon Henderson called the three gallons for the nonessential motorist "a damned sight more than he's entitled to," nobody laughed. The song faded from the heart, Pollyannery from the head. Now the citizenry learned again the truth about total war: no matter how bad the experts say things are going to be, they turn out worse.

Goodby, Uncle Joe. It was the same with rubber. When Washington announced that there would be no new tires, it had softened the blow with quick talk of recaps. When it took away recaps, it talked about synthetics.

Last week real alarm crept up the citizen's veins. Seven officials went before a Senate committee, painted a picture so black that it was veiled in military secrecy, and asked for power to requisition private tires and cars.

The bill was no joke. Said Under Secretary of War Robert P. Patterson: "There are a million tons of rubber on our highways now. That must be conserved. . . . Wasteful use of rubber will soon be a memory. The automobile petting parties will have to go. ... Our situation can become critical if the Sunday trips to see Uncle Joe are continued. I agree . . . that we must hold our tires as a public trust."

Background for Pain. Washington had not been trying to kid the consumer--although unquestionably few officials could resist a little sugar-coating on hard facts. The plain truth was that nobody had foreseen the awful truth.

Oil estimates were knocked out by U-boats prowling the East Coast. The East normally uses 1,600,000 bbl. a day, 90% shipped by tanker; now tankers would carry only a fraction of the load, and there was no way to fill the gap. The railroads, working valiantly, got last week's shipments up to 640,000 bbl. a day (see p. 73). Pipelines and inland waterways added only 175,000 bbl. a day. Until new transportation miracles could be performed, the East was out of luck. Even under this week's rationing system, the East will still use some 1,400,000 bbl. a day, including 250,000 bbl. a day required to replenish its low reserve stocks.

There were few incurable optimists left. When Leon Henderson said that the U.S. would be back to 1932 living standards within 15 months, nobody doubted him in the least, although they knew that 1943's depression would be of a different kind. The U.S. citizen, having learned his lesson that the worst was nearly always true, was ready to believe that 1932 would soon look like the good old days.

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