Optimism, For Once With Douglas MacArthur's command over all United Nations' land, sea and air forces in the Southwest Pacific finally clarified, the question became: What next? The answer, as given by the brassiest brass hats in the area:

Three weeks ago it began to look as if the Japanese had decided they did not want to invade Australia. Now it looks as if they could not invade it if they wanted.

This opinion, of competent soldiers on the spot, was based on a compound of good news. The steady flow of American ships carrying troops, planes and all the impedimenta of war continued, so broadly that this week several brands of American cigarets were being issued to troops. Dutch air units, which had reached Australia planeless, were now ready for action. The Philippine and Tokyo raids lifted morale, while the Allied raids on New Guinea and New Britain carried on a positive defense -- keeping the Japanese in enough confusion so that they apparently could not mount an attack, at least not without drawing on forces they are now using in other areas.

Some U.S. observers were so optimistic as to say that last week was when the tide turned. They believed that United Nations forces could now retake New Guinea and New Britain any time they want -- though they probably would not move until a larger offensive is possible. Whether or not this was overoptimism, it marked a turn for the better: conditions were no longer so bad that all officers in the field had to think in terms of retreat.

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