What Then?

The U.S. this week faces its bitterest defeat since 1814: the loss of all the southwest Pacific except Australia. And Australia is in peril. If Java falls, if the United Nations lose their last bases within striking distance of the Japanese, what kind of war can the U.S. then wage in the Pacific?

Hit & Run. The Navy and its air service can harass Japanese shipping and outposts by surface, submarine and aircraft-carrier raids, constantly striking and then retiring to the main U.S. base in Pearl Harbor. Such raids cannot win the war. They cannot even protect U.S. shipping routes to the Allied forces in Australia and the Middle East, or supply lines to Russia, India and China.

Attack from the North. Tonguing out from Alaska, 1,150 miles into the north Pacific toward Tokyo, lie the U.S. Aleutian Islands (see map, p. 17). The outermost U.S. base, Dutch Harbor, is 2,550 miles from Tokyo-well beyond effective bomber range. But the Aleutians stretch halfway to Japan's little-known naval base at Paramoshiri in the Kuriles, which means that they could be either targets for Japanese attack or U.S. steppingstones toward Japan. Heavily armed, carefully balanced striking forces might take off from Alaska and the Aleutians, perhaps get the use of Russia's naval base at Petropavlovsk, fight for footholds in the Kuriles, then strike directly at Japan itself.

A more immediate possibility for attack in the north is bombing from Vladivostok, only 580 air miles from Tokyo. For that offensive the U.S. must have: 1) Russia's consent; 2) more bombers than have yet been delivered to any front.

Attack from the Center. Given the means and the offensive will, the U.S. can do more than raid from Pearl Harbor. Assault forces of carriers, cruisers, destroyers, submarines and transports with supporting troops can strike to recapture Wake,* then Guam, eventually establish a forward base in Japan's Marianas. Similar forces could fight step by step through Japan's Marshall and Caroline Islands, finishing what the Navy spectacularly began in February with hit-&-run raids.

With this spearpoint in the Marianas and Guam, U.S. forces would still be 1,350 miles from Tokyo, but they would again be in position to threaten Japan's vital supply routes. And the Navy would be in a better position to aim striking forces at Japan.

But for all-out attack via the Aleutians and the Marianas, the U.S. must amass more carriers, more shipping, more aircraft. Then it must fight for the bases. All this means that full-scale attacks from the north and center are possibilities for the future. How far in the future depends mainly on how fast the U.S. musters its offensive will and spirit, gets additional aircraft carriers into service, and reconstructs its naval thinking around the assault airplane.

Attack from the South. If Java falls, Australia will thus remain an all-essential base for present operations in the far Pacific. Desolate, vulnerable northern Australia would be hard to defend against determined Japanese attack. But Australia's Prime Minister John Curtin was speaking for as well as to the U.S. last week when he said that southern Australia must be held. There the U.S. can amass land and air forces; there it can base the naval forces necessary for an attempt to recapture the Indies and drive on toward Malaya and Japan from the south.

* Last week Tokyo reported an attack on Wake by a typical task force: two cruisers, an aircraft carrier, six destroyers. The Japanese said they suffered minor damage, minor casualties. Said the Navy Department in Washington: "No information."

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