Guesswork

In Washington, city of rumors, last week appeared the most startling rumor of all: no new automobiles at all could be produced after this month. Defense officials were said to be drawing straws to pick the unlucky man who would have to break the news to Detroit.

Nobody could say whether the rumor was true or not. Reason: OPM's ignorance (complicated by constant upward revisions of the Army's and Lend-Lease's estimates of their requirements) of how bad materials shortages really are. Despite its 2,124 paid employes, its 500 $1-a-year-men, its access to the books of all U.S. corporations, OPM still relies mostly on trade papers to tell it where materials are, how much is available, how much needed.

In some cases, tightness of materials may be as much a matter of maldistribution as of actual shortage. Bald, earnest Stacy May, chief OPM statistician, has tried for months to get permission from his bosses (notably Production Chief John Biggers) to make his own survey of manufacturers' requirements and inventories. Only with such information could OPM work out a rational allocation of tight materials. So far May has not succeeded, and OPM is ignorant.

The no-automobiles rumor cropped up after OPM suddenly discovered the newest and worst shortage: copper (which went under full priority control last fortnight). One Government estimate of this month's copper situation: supply, 110,000 tons; defense requirements, 80,000 tons; essential non-defense needs, 45,000 tons. This means a 15,000-ton shortage even for essential requirements, not a single pound to spare for civilian uses such as the auto industry (which normally uses 110,000 tons a year for radiators, ignition equipment, etc.). Other short auto materials include cast iron (for engine blocks) and steel, which also went under full priorities last week (see above "At Last").

These shortages may be exaggerated, may not. Trouble was that assembly lines cannot be run by guesswork.

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