Pro-U. S. or Neutral?

In Chile last week Latin America's only Popular Front Government met its first major electoral test and came out a winner. Of more interest to the U. S. was the fact that the policy of cooperation with the U. S. was also put to a test and also came out a winner. This was something of a paradox because most elements of the Popular Front favor nationalism and neutrality against a pro-U. S. alignment in World War II.

After Socialist Minister of Trade Oscar Schnake Vergara returned from a six-month visit to Washington last December, Chile's Socialist Party became noticeably cool toward its Communist colleagues in the Popular Front. Minister Schnake had wangled a $17,000,000 Export-Import Bank loan for Chile, and in return was supposed to see that the U. S. got full cooperation in its plans for hemisphere defense. Last January Socialist Leader Marmaduke Grove announced that if the U. S. entered the war, Chile would follow.

Two days later the Socialist Party with drew from the Popular Front because it was "inspired by the Communist Party." Just before last week's congressional election the three Socialist members of President Pedro Aguirre Cerda's Cabinet resigned.

When the votes were counted the Communists were found to have increased their membership in the Chamber of Deputies from seven to 17. Without the Socialists, the Popular Front had 71 votes in the Chamber, against 61 for the Conservative opposition. The Socialists, with 15 members, held the balance of power. President Aguirre refused to accept the resignation of his Socialist Cabinet members, and the Ministers let the rejection ride, thereby tacitly re-entering the Front. With a majority in the Chamber for the first time in his administration, President Aguirre will doubtless lead his ragged country even further to the Left, while as the price of their adherence to his domestic policies the Socialists will see that Chile's foreign policy hews to the U. S. line.

Problem of Eggs. There is no question that the majority of Latin American people support hemisphere solidarity, but they support it as a means of defense and not as an instrument for fighting non-American wars. They readily see that World War II threatens the U. S. world position, but they do not admit that it threatens theirs.

They believe that peace will bring them ecomonic recovery, no matter who wins the war. If Britain wins, they can return to their place in the Anglo-U. S. world order. If Germany wins, they can bargain for concessions from both the U. S. and Totalitaria. And so, as long as the issue of the war is in doubt, they hesitate to put all their eggs in the Anglo-U. S. basket.

This hesitation is meeting with increased pressure from the U. S. as the problem of hemisphere security becomes urgent. To safeguard hemisphere security the U. S. has recently established as listening posts 20 new consulates. 17 of them in Latin America, two in west Africa and the last in Cape Verde Islands between the two continents. But the U. S. also needs air and naval bases throughout Latin America and has been trying to get them since last summer. The U. S. holds that these bases are essential to hemisphere defense, but Latin America fears that they may be used as outposts of U. S. imperialism after the war is over.

This problem, superimposed on purely domestic issues, has brought political crises to most of the countries of South America. In Colombia next week will be held a congressional election which will probably determine the outcome of next year's Presidential election. Leading candidate for the Presidency is onetime (1934-38) President Alfonso Lopez, who is not so amenable to cooperation with the U. S. as is President Dr. Eduardo Santos (who may not succeed himself), and in the background hovers the anti-U. S. Conservative Party Leader, Publisher Laureano Gomez.

Between Ecuador and Peru a 110-year-old frontier dispute is heating up again, with anti-U. S. elements in Peru claiming that the U. S. has promised its support to Ecuador in return for bases on the Galapagos Islands. (A lie, says Washington. ) In Bolivia pro-U. S. President General Enrique Penaranda del Castillo faces trouble from a Leftist front.

Argentina last week still awaited the comeback attempt of ailing President Roberto Marcelino Ortiz, while Acting President Ramon S. Castillo moved to make his temporary Government permanent. Of all South American countries Argentina is the most independent-minded (vis-a-vis the U. S.), and at the same time the most pro-British, and so the Ortiz-Castillo feud will have little effect on foreign policy unless it blows up into revolution. But in nearby Uruguay the anti-Government Herrerista-Blanco Party makes hay by opposing U. S. influence. In Paraguay a showdown is brewing between Dictator-President General Higino Morinigo and his would-be successor, onetime Provisional President Colonel Rafael Franco, who is now supporting himself by making soap in Buenos Aires.

The one stabilizing force in all South America is Brazil, whose Dictator-President Dr. Getulio Dornellas Vargas has so far played ball with the U. S. against the opposition of a Germanophile Army clique. If the Army clique ever gets the upper hand in Brazil, the U. S. may as well count the southern half of the hemisphere lost.

Quartersphere Safe. Last week President Dr. Arnulfo Arias of Panama announced that his country had granted the U. S. the right to build air bases anywhere in Panama for defense of the Canal. This was the first agreement on bases to be concluded in Latin America. Panama's new President is one of the most totalitarian-minded and nationalistic of Latin America's caudillos.* Someone must have had to persuade him thoroughly before he agreed to this Good Neighborly gesture.

Two days later, in the Mexican Senate, elegant, 6 ft. 2 in. Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Ezequiel Padilla softly announced that the U. S. and Mexico were working out the details of a defense agreement. Since the U. S. and Mexico have been working out the details of a defense agreement for the past six months, Foreign Minister Padilla's announcement meant that the deal was just about concluded.

The Foreign Minister made a point of saying that new air and naval bases will be built "with Mexican money, by Mexican engineers, with Mexican workers," that they "will always be guarded by the Mexican Police and Army." But they will be put at the disposal of all the Americas, and that is what the U. S. wants.

With Mexico and Panama in line, and with no real opposition to its defense plans existing in Central America or the Caribbean republics, the U. S. waited only for the Lend-Lease Bill to become law before training its pressure hose on countries farther south. Next in line were Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador, which lie close to the Panama Canal. Once the entire northern quartersphere is safely in the U. S. orbit, the countries of the southern quartersphere may decide that U. S. protection is worth more than a precarious neutrality. Then it will be up to the U. S. to show that it can protect them.

*Pursuing the Arias campaign to make Spanish the sole language of Panama, Lieut. Colonel N. Ardito Barletta, mayor of Panama City, last month "requested" Publisher Tomas Gabriel Duque to fold his bilingual newspaper so that its Spanish section, La Estrella de Panama, would appear on the outside, relegating the English language Star & Herald to the back pages. Last week one Carlos A. Ruiz won a $100 prize posted by the National Assembly for a motto for Panama. The motto: "Only God Above Us."

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