Shape of the Vote

Last week Franklin Roosevelt looked close to victory in the 1940 election. With the West, South and Border States almost solidly for him, he apparently needed only a brace of Eastern States to coast home. But Franklin Roosevelt was never a chicken counter before hatching time. Apparently he was the only politico in the Democratic Party not suffering from overconfidence. Conversely, Wendell Willkie seemed the only major Republican not suffering from defeatism.

Only experts knew that the Democrats had good cause to worry; that poor local candidates, bad local management, plain Roosevelt coattail-riding was throwing whole States away. As the voters moved off the fence, local estimates of trends set up the Nov. 5 results about as follows:

Pacific Coast: California (22), Washington (8), safely Roosevelt; Oregon (5), exactly on the fence.

Rocky Mountains. Utah (4), Idaho (4), Nevada (3), Montana (4), safely Roosevelt; Wyoming (3), Colorado (6), doubtful.

Southeast, Southwest. Arizona (3), New Mexico (3), Texas (23), Arkansas (9), Louisiana (10), Mississippi (9), Alabama (11), Georgia (12), Florida (7), North Carolina (13), South Carolina (8), Virginia (11), Oklahoma (11)--all safely Roosevelt.

Border States. Maryland (8), West Virginia (8), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (11), Missouri (15)--all safely Roosevelt.

Midwest. Nebraska (7), Kansas (9), North Dakota (4), South Dakota(4)--safely Willkie. Doubtful: Minnesota (11), Illinois (29), Iowa (11), Ohio (26), Indiana (14), Michigan (19), Wisconsin (12).

East. Delaware (3), Maine (5), Vermont (3)--all Willkie's. Pennsylvania(36), New Jersey (16), Massachusetts (17), Rhode Island (4),Connecticut (8)--all Roosevelt's now. Doubtful: New York (47), New Hampshire (4).

The totals added up: Roosevelt 309, Willkie 54. Doubtful: 168.

This was not so large a Roosevelt majority as indicated by the Gallup Poll, but was probably a reasonable estimate, considering that Dr. Gallup himself pointed out last week that his poll indicated that Willkie's strength, except in the South, was considerably greater than Landon's had been four years ago.

But any non-partisan calculation of prospective votes clearly showed the magnitude of Willkie's task. He must not only win all the doubtful States' votes--and in many of these he was momentarily ahead--but cut deeply into comparatively safe Roosevelt territory. The battleground was obviously the East and Midwest.

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