Trend

By last week the 1940 political campaign had, for the first time, shaped into sharp outlines. Many an "if" remained, most connected with the biggest "if" of all: Term III. But some definite conclusions could be definitely drawn.

Democrats. Franklin Roosevelt, willing or no, last week clinched the Democratic nomination on the first ballot.

Needing 548 votes, there were pledged to him a solid 499--without counting New York's 94, Massachusetts' 34 (both of them certainties), also without counting 13 other States which will come if he calls.

To see Mr. Roosevelt last week went Georgia's Governor Eurith D. Rivers, bearing 24 convention votes; North Carolina's conservative Senator Josiah W.

Bailey, grumpily, but with 26 votes; Michigan's Highway Commissioner Murray Van Wagoner, 38 votes; Iowa's Henry A. Wallace, 22 votes; Alabama's Speaker William Bankhead, 22 votes; South Carolina's Governor Burnet Maybank, 16 votes.

The President had the nomination whether he wanted it or not; all that remained was for him to accept or reject.

P: It was clear that, if the President rejects the nomination, he cannot force the Democratic Convention to nominate any candidate except Tennessee's Cordell Hull --with the faintly possible exception of Montana's Burton K. Wheeler.

P: It was certain that the Convention, if left to its own devices, would nominate Mr. Hull as the only candidate acceptable to all factions, and as the only candidate certain to attract Republican voters. P:It was not yet clear whether the Convention would pay James A. Farley's bill For Services Rendered by offering him the Vice-Presidential nomination. P: It appeared certain that neither New York's Robert H. Jackson nor Indiana's

Paul V. McNutt will be on the Democratic ticket, unless Mr. Roosevelt insists.

Results of last week's State elections merely underlined these conclusions. The week was a triumphal parade for the President.

California. A Roosevelt ticket (Governor Culbert Olson) whipped a Garner slate, 7-to-1. Ham-&-Eggs ran a feeble third.

Sunk without a trace was the ticket headed by Lieut. Governor Ellis Patterson, who criticized the President's foreign policy.

The G. O. P. vote was bigger than it had any right to be.

Florida. A bitter primary ended with dude-mustached Spessard Holland and rich Attorney Francis Whitehair as gubernatorial candidates. Wrecked were the Senatorial hopes of Governor Fred P.

("Fighting Britches") Cone; derailed at the last minute was Liberty Publisher Bernarr Macfadden by Townsendite Jerry Carter. Mr. Carter finished second to silent Incumbent Charles Oscar Andrews.

Top two in each bracket meet in a runoff May 28.

South Dakota. In 1932 Franklin Roosevelt beat Herbert Hoover in South Dakota by 84,000 votes, beat Landon in 1936 by 34,000 votes. In 1938 Republican Harlan J. Bushfield squeakily won the Governorship from Democrat Oscar Fosheim. Last week Governor Bushfield, up for renomination, pulled twice the Democratic total.

South Dakota's trend to the G. O. P. was plain for all to see.

Maryland. Voters in Maryland's Democratic primary apathetically chose a wealthy china collector, Incumbent Senator George Radcliffe, over a wealthy fox hunter, National Committeeman Howard Bruce. A lone Republican gleam came only from the Sixth District, where onetime fireball Pitcher Walter Johnson was nominated for Congress, and granted a 50-50 chance of election. The "Big Train," now a farmer, brushed hog feed off the hands that once sent baseballs smoking, said modestly: "Gee whiz. . . . I aim to study up on them things [foreign affairs]. ... I know some fellas that know all about those things. . . ." Republicans. While straws in the wind still showed a general trend to the G. O. P., Candidate Thomas E. Dewey, still leading the field, maintained his second tack on foreign policy. In New York (Jan. 20) Mr. Dewey was close to Mr. Roosevelt's position; in Isolationist Wisconsin (March 30) he went Isolationist with a big I; last week he insisted any additional aid to the Allies would lead to U. S. involvement.

Mr. Dewey added Maryland's 16, Idaho's eight votes to his bag last week. But in California Herbert Hoover's agents quietly picked up 44 "uninstructed" delegates for their old boss. Ohio's Candidate Robert Alphonso Taft discovered last week that viewing-with-alarm, tub-thumping and Pullman undressing had shortened the life of his four all-purpose suits (funerals, weddings, Senate). He acted promptly: in 25 minutes he had enough clothes to carry him through the G. O. P. convention--one pair Regal shoes, black, $5.80; one dark grey, lightweight spring suit, $60.

One definite conclusion could be made last week on the Republican race: either Kansas' Alf Landon or Pennsylvania's Joe Pew could make Tom Dewey's nomination certain. Last week neither boss was so disposed.

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