April Folly

An ancient baseball institution is preseason prognostication. Although most baseball fans are well aware of the fact that April forecasts are foolish, last week on the eve of the widely ballyhooed centennial season, they went ahead predicting how the major-league teams would finish in October. Most weighty predictions came from the baseball writers who had just returned from a two-month training-camp survey of sore arms, batting averages and rookies' temperaments.

Polled by the Associated Press, these experts prophesied that the season would wind up with the teams in this order:

American League National League

New York Cincinnati

Boston New York

Cleveland Chicago

Detroit Pittsburgh

Washington St. Louis

Chicago Boston

St. Louis Brooklyn

Philadelphia Philadelphia

National League. The only pennant the Cincinnati Reds ever won, in 53 years of trying, was the one that involved them in the scandalous Black Sox Series of 1919. That they are the experts' choice this year is due to: 1) the ablest pitching staff in the league (headed by Paul Derringer, Lee Grissom, Johnny Vander Meer); 2) some of the best hitters (Batting Champion Ernie Lombardi, Ival Goodman, Frank McCormick); 3) Manager Bill McKechnie.

Most baseball fans agree that mild-mannered Bill McKechnie did the most amazing managerial job in the major leagues last year when, in his first year with the Reds, he brought them from the cellar to fourth place--only six games behind the pennant-winning Chicago Cubs. They might have won the pennant had not Pitcher Lee Grissom, rookie prodigy of the year before, broken his ankle in a stupid attempt at base-stealing toward the end of the season.

American League. Although the World Champion New York Yankees are overwhelming favorites to win their fourth straight pennant, the most talked of team in the league is the Boston Red Sox. To camp followers this spring they showed such class that they are generally given an outside chance to beat the favorites to the wire--or at least give them a run for their money. How much of a threat they turn out to be will depend largely on a trio of rawboned rookies: Ted Williams, Jim Tabor and Woodie Rich.

Runners-up to the Yankees last year, the Red Sox were a powerful offensive team. They had the best batting average (.299) in the league, were 25 percentage points ahead of the Yankees. But they were weak in pitching. And pitching is considered 80% of baseball. To improve their defensive strength, Owner Tom Yawkey last winter bought Elden Auker and Jake Wade from the Tigers and Denny Galehouse from the Indians. But the pitcher from whom they expect big things (just in case Lefty Grove's arm is really dead) is Woodrow Rich, 22-year-old hillbilly, who won 19 games for their Little Rock farm last year.

The other two rookies are in a worse spot. For they are expected to fill the shoes of two able batsmen, Ben Chapman and Pinky Higgins, who were traded in order to get pitchers. If Outfielder Ted Williams, a gangling, temperamental 20-year-old, can stand up to big-league pitchers as well as he did last year when he hit .366 and cracked out 43 home runs for the Minneapolis Millers, Boston fans will have something to wave about. Third Baseman Jim Tabor has already proved that he can cope with major-leaguers: in a tryout with the Red Sox at the tail-end of last season he batted .316 in 19 games. Not the least perturbed last week Rookie Williams drawled: "There is only one man on the Boston club who can hit them further than me. That's Jimmy Foxx.* And I'm not so sure he can sometimes."

*Foxx hit 50 homers last year and batted in 175 runs.

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