The Law

In 1590 Galileo stood on a balcony of the Leaning Tower of Pisa and demonstrated that things of different weight fall at the same rate, that whatever is dropped first lands first. A similar law governs naval races. Nations which start in front tend to stay there. So when Japan last week announced that within six years she planned to have a fleet "equal to that of the strongest naval power," no one took her very literally.

The new plan, as outlined to the Tokyo Diet's Budget Committee by Admiral Mitsumasa Yonai, will provide $329,177,940 over a period of six years to supplement building now going on. The Admiral said that latest plans of the U. S. and Britain had been taken into account in mapping the program, and provision made for increases in case those countries should further jack up their building rate.

Just now that rate of armament is so high that Japan will have to strain hard not to lose ground. In fiscal 1939 Great Britain is spending $302,500,000 on new construction, the U. S. $211,113,000, Japan $16,420,950. Even allowing for the amount Japan saves on cheap labor and building costs, her present program is far from "equal to the strongest." Neither Britain nor the U. S. has planned six years ahead, but all indications are that at the end of that time their relative strength to Japan will be just about what it is now: Britain has an estimated 2,000,000 tons of seagoing strength, the U. S. 1,750,000, Japan about 1,200,000--roughly a ratio of 100-85-58.* Except for the slight lag of the U. S. behind Britain (which has always existed), this is the famous 5-5-3 ratio set by the Washington Naval Treaty way back in 1922. The Law of Naval Races having held good for 17 years, the next six are not apt to see it broken.

Even if Japan could catch up, it probably has no desire to. All Japan needs is a navy strong enough to meet any power in Japan's own waters. So far, there is no indication that Britain or the U. S. would under any conditions send into the western Pacific tonnage greater than the total Japanese tonnage. But the chief effect of Japan's naval ambitions is to encourage qualitative rather than quantitative competition from the other powers. Example: Having heard rumors that Japan is building two giant battleships of between 40,000 and 46,000 tons, the British forthwith planned the Lion and Temeraire, each 40,000 tons, and the U. S. drew plans for two 45,000-ton battleships, most powerful in history.

* On this basis Italy's present stand is 34, Germany's 25, and Russia's 22.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.