"Just Started"

The 400,000,000 Chinese are unbeatable by the Japanese of 1938, for the same reason that they have been unbeatable as far back as history goes. The Chinese people have biologically absorbed and turned into "Chinese" all their many conquerors, of whom the last were the Manchus. Last week Newspundit Walter Lippmann concluded from the fall of Canton and Hankow that "Japan has won the war." but neither Chinese nor Japanese agreed with newsy Occidental efforts to anticipate the ponderous course of Oriental history.

A Japanese who might well have been flushed with double-barrelled victory, War Minister Lieut. General Seishiro Itagaki, officially declared last week in Tokyo: "The conflict between Japan and China is little affected. . . . Sino-Japanese hostilities have just started. The unexpectedly early victory at Hankow should be attributed to the august virtues of His Imperial Majesty, and at the same time to the brave efforts of the Japanese forces which participated. After victory, tighten your helmet strap.

"The soldier's wife's first duty is to relieve her husband of all worries while he is fighting" continued General Itagaki, nailing with Oriental candor the issue of marital fidelity which arises in every war. He concluded: "We cannot tell how long it will take to restore peace because the operations must continue until General Chiang Kai-shek falls and his Communist co-supporters are ousted. Even if he said he had abandoned pro-Communistic and anti-Japanese policies we would mistrust that declaration while he retained any authority. He might change his mind again."

"Luring on Japan." It came out last week that the high Chinese civil and military leaders who remained in Hankow until last fortnight departed in six airplanes. In the first plane were Generalissimo Chiang Kaishek, Mrs. Chiang, and their Australian adviser, William Henry Donald.

Where this plane landed was kept a secret, but from his hideout the Generalissimo sent a manifesto which the New York Times headlined: CHIANG SEES GAINS IN EVERY RETREAT. To Occidentals, who think in days, months and years this was pure irony; but Chinese think in decades, centuries, millenniums.

The Generalissimo's manifesto: "We were prepared for this [i.e. the fall of Hankow, Canton and before that Shanghai, North China and Manchukuo]. For years we have concentrated on development of West China, where bases for operations are established and where we will prolong resistance until victory is ours. We hope to lure the enemy further inland. The farther they come the sooner victory will be ours."

Wild West. The coastal Chinese-- China has always been ruled from her coastal provinces--know more about Western China than George Washington knew about the Wild West--but not much more. In effect, Chinese officials, students and soldiers began a covered wagon trek to their Wild West after it appeared that Japanese troops could not be defeated in the coastal provinces or even at Hankow by those troops which it seemed judicious to use, and perhaps not by any Chinese troops.*

In terms of U. S. geography, the Japanese took "Chicago" when they took Hankow. The Generalissimo this week was probably hiding in what would correspond to "Kansas City." Meanwhile, the nominal President of China, Mr. Lin Sen, and other Cabinet members have been established for several months at Chungking ("Denver"). They met last week with Chinese Communist leaders who were reported "threatening" to withdraw their support from the Government unless it reaffirmed unconditional support of Generalissimo Chiang, and this was given.

Chinese have transferred to cities in their Wild West over 60% of the industrial machinery of Hankow and much besides from other cities, including the equipment of several Chinese arsenals. To industrialize Western China now is a job like that on which Russians have been working for 20 years in Siberia.

With President Lin in Chungking are Finance Minister Dr. H. H. Kung and famed Dr. Sun Fo, a son of the Father of the Chinese Republic. Dr. Sun Fo is the liaison man between the Chinese Government and the Soviet Government. He said frankly, while on his way from Moscow last summer to China, that the Soviet Union was supplying China with most of her war planes and some artillery, but that China depended for her small arms, machine guns and ammunition mainly on what she was able to buy in Europe. Most of this landed at British Hong Kong, was shipped via the Canton-Hankow railway, both ends of which are now in Japanese hands. The rest came via French Indo-China, and Tokyo last week demanded that Paris stop that (see below).

Thus--for the short term--greater or less Chinese success in resisting Japan is directly dependent: 1) upon how much finished war material the Soviet Union is willing and able to ship over remaining inland routes, as the Japanese have already cut the best; 2) on Chinese ability to equip themselves with the products of new arsenals set up in the Wild West.

The present war had lasted up to this week 480 days. Some 200,000,000 of the 400,000,000 Chinese people have passed under even nominal Japanese control, and in every "conquered" Chinese province guerrilla resistance continues. All the greatest Chinese cities are now in Japanese hands. Japan holds seven of the principal gateways to China, is attempting to profit from the trade which still flows through these gates. At latest dispatches, however, not a single nationally known Chinese had become a Japanese puppet ruler, excepting the "Emperor of Manchukuo"--which is not in China proper. There was still no sign that Chinese morale was cracking.

* The foreign and native advisers of Generalissimo Chiang have agreed from the first with his policy of using the best of his troops (those drilled by German officers before these were recalled by Hitler) mainly to herd hundreds of thousands of Chinese provincial troops toward the Japanese and prevent those who wished to escape from escaping. After the Japanese occupied Shanghai they found many dead Chinese machine gunners handcuffed to their guns. (The Chinese explanation: "They handcuffed themselves.") Neutral correspondents estimate at about 175,000 the number of Chinese second grade troops killed at Shanghai, have reported that although some few of the Generalissimo's best troops saw action and gave a good account of themselves the bulk of them withdrew to Canton, thence to Hankow and last week to the West.

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