November 8

Next week, when the ballots are counted on election evening, the political campaign of 1938 will be embalmed in history. This week it is on its way to the undertaker's. Shrewd politicians have already sized up its career, and are drawing lessons from it for the future.

The big political debate of 1938, like the debates of 1934 and 1936, has consisted 90% of talking at cross purposes: the Ins defying anyone to find fault with the New Deal's broad objective, to improve the lot of mankind. The Outs denouncing the New Deal's acts for making the lot of mankind harder.

With such a fruitless argument, it is little wonder that national "issues" have had less political effect than national events. The cost of Government, the centralization of Government, how Labor should be freed and Industry regulated have concerned practical politicians far less than such hard facts as Depression during early 1938 (and Recovery this fall), low farm prices, distribution of relief cash, the growing clamor of oldsters for pensions.

In the light of such facts it was last week possible to pick the election returns which on Nov. 8 will be significant news.

National Trend. After a party has won two Presidential elections in succession it is normal at the next election for the Outs to increase their strength in Congress. In the landslide of 1936 Democrats were elected to some 50 seats in the House from districts which might be classed as normally Republican. Therefore, if Republicans win back less than about 50 seats, the coming election will be a Democratic victory. If they win 50, more or less, the outcome will show no significant trend in national politics. If they win substantially more than 50 seats the outcome will be a distinct set-back for the New Deal. Since the Republicans now have 88 seats in the House, the Democrats 328, par for the election will be 138 Republicans, 278 Democrats in the next House of Representatives.

The limits of probability were set last week by the claims of the two parties: the Democrats admitted the probable loss of 25 Representatives (as well as two Senators and five or six Governors); the Republicans seriously claimed up to 90 seats in the House. Non-political surveys estimated Republican gains in the house at from 30 (Liberty) to 53 (Institute of Public Opinion).

Local political outcomes will provide more detailed evidence of party strength: by geography, by issues, by personalities.

New England. Maine has already voted Republican, with confusing pressure from the Townsend old-age pension element. Vermont, still Republican, can contribute only one piece of news to the election: if it should go Democratic it would signify that a fourth successive New Deal landslide had hit the nation. New Hampshire, a more sensitive indicator, needs to swing only slightly to revert to Republicanism.

Massachusetts' vote will mean slightly more but there local factors weigh heavily. If Democrat Curley does not become Governor it will be as much a rebuke to his Tammanyesque past as a tribute to Republican Saltonstall's blueblooded rectitude. It will also reflect astute party management by Mr. Saltonstall's backers, and a serious split among the Massachusetts Democrats. Hence, if Massachusetts goes Republican it will not mean a "return of New England to conservatism." Similarly, in Connecticut: if old Governor Cross loses to Republican Baldwin and Senator Lonergan to Republican Danaher, it will largely be due to local byplays and political scandals.

Mid-Atlantic. In three big eastern States, the election will settle three big local political fights nationally important not in their pre-election causes but in their inevitable post-election effects. In New York Governor Lehman refused to identify his campaign for a fourth term with the New Deal, and Republican Candidate Dewey concentrated his attack last week on the "racketeering" Albany Democratic machine bossed by the Brothers O'Connell.

In New Jersey's, Senate race, the one real issue between progressive Republican Candidate Barbour (Senator, 1931-37) and 100% New Dealer Ely was Jersey City's hard-boiled Boss Hague, as Mr. Ely's backer.

In Pennsylvania, the campaign was raucously, abusively, expensively a pot & kettle contest. The ticket of Democratic Governor Earle (for the Senate) and Charles Alvin Jones (for Governor) was nigrescent under grave charges of graft against Mr. Earle's "Little New Deal" administration, and by charges of WPA-in-politics; and Republican Judge Arthur H. James (for Governor) was tarred as a candidate of the Interests, including fantastic Publisher Moe Annenberg of Philadelphia.

The Mid-West. Five barometers that will record the success or failure of the G. O. P.'s attempted renaissance are Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Kansas, and, especially, Ohio. In Ohio betting odds shifted last week from Democratic Senator Robert Johns Bulkley towards his tall, squinting opponent, Republican Robert Alphonso Taft, 49, oldest son of the 27th President. Though their debates in the Lincoln-Douglas tradition were dignified to the point of dullness, Candidate Taft, ably abetted by his smart wife, Martha, had apparently a bit the better of one of the campaign's few straight fights on the issue of New Deal performance. In the gubernatorial campaign a wide rift in the Democratic ranks (between Candidate Charles Sawyer and Governor Martin L. Davey whom he defeated for renomination) improved the chances of Mr. Taft's ticket-mate, John W. Bricker.

In Michigan, the uproar about Governor Murphy's behavior during the labor wars (see p. 7) is less important than another local Democratic rift and the issue of personalities : vote-getting Frank Murphy faced by the vote-getting strength of Republican Frank D. Fitzgerald, whom Mr. Murphy, with Franklin Roosevelt's active aid, beat last time by only a narrow margin.

In Iowa, the margin by which Democratic Governor Nelson G. Kraschel in 1936 beat Republican George A. Wilson was extremely narrow. Unless Mr. Wilson beats him this year, the farm unrest which Republicans hope to capitalize is weaker than most observers rate it. But Republican Lester J. Dickinson's chance of getting back into the Senate past Senator Guy M. Gillette was considered slim because the Roosevelt effort to purge Senator Gillette in the primaries had made him something of a hero, reacting in the end to preserve a Democratic vote in the Senate.

In Wisconsin, it will be no news if Democrat F. Ryan Duffy loses his Senate seat. Politicians were interested, however, to see whether it would go to Republican Alexander Wiley or Herman L. Ekern, candidate of the Brothers La Follette's Progressive party which, still nebulous nationally, looked strong enough at home to re-elect Brother Philip for a fourth term as Governor. His Republican opponent, running strong last week despite wild charges against him, is Millionaire Julius P. Heil, Milwaukee manufacturer.

In Minnesota, as in Wisconsin, the Democrats were as good as beaten last week. Franklin Roosevelt, who let the Democratic ticket be withdrawn two years ago to make way for Farmer-Labor Governor Elmer Benson, last week virtually repeated this gesture by utterly ignoring the candidacy of Democrat Thomas Gallagher in a telegram which he wrote to local journalists commending loud Mr. Benson (see p. 34). This was a last-ditch effort by Mr. Roosevelt to keep Minnesota in the Farmer-Labor column and out of the clutches of russet-haired young Republican Harold Stassen, who appeared to have torn away the right pinions of Elmer Benson's left-wing following.

In Kansas, Republicans Payne Ratner (for Governor) and Clyde Reed (for Senator), capitalizing on farmers' discontent with low crop prices in their fight against Governor Walter Huxman and Senator George McGill, promise to show (chiefly) whether AAA has now become a New Deal liability.

Pacific Coast. Unless California's screwy $30 Every Thursday ("Ham & Eggs") proposal drags them down with it. Democrats Culbert Olson, for Governor, and Sheridan Downey, for Senator, will have good chance of leading a further surge on the Pacific Coast toward the New Deal. (Said Franklin Roosevelt last week: "I am convinced that Sheridan is a real liberal.") Republican Philip Bancroft looked stronger against Mr. Downey than Governor Frank Merriam looked against Mr. Olson, who would be California's first Democratic Governor this century.

In Oregon, it appeared that the Republican Senate seat of Frederick Steiwer (retired) would be given to Democrat Willis E. Mahoney despite the fact that old Dr. Francis ("Plan") Townsend took the candidacy of Republican Rufus C. Holman as the peg on which to hang his blanket endorsement of all friendly Republicans this year. West Coast elections will serve principally to show the asset-or-liability value of old age pension politics.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.