Roosevelt, Farley & Co.

(See front cover)

When Henry Ford's Oscar II sailed out of New York Harbor one December day in 1915 to end the World War, its rail was lined with the most distinguished collection of naive idealists the U. S. had laughed at in many a year. Aboard the Peace Ship were Rosika Schwimmer with a black bag full of papers from the Premiers of Europe, Feminist Inez Milholland, Publisher Samuel S. McClure, Judge B. B. Lindsey, Governor Louis B. Hanna of North Dakota, many another headliner of that era. Also aboard was a husky youngster of 21 who was neither distinguished nor naive. The name of Emil Hurja was on the Oscar II's passenger list because the University of Washington was sending this student abroad as its peace delegate. Last week Franklin D. Roosevelt's chances of being re-elected President of the U. S. next November would be considerably less than they are if it were not for the off-stage activities at Democratic national headquarters of that onetime peace delegate. Emil Hurja did not get the boys out of the trenches by Christmas 1915, but he seems likely to keep his boss in the White House from 1937 to 1941.

Knockabout. Smallest (6 ft., 1 1/2 in.) of five sons of a Finnish miner in Crystal Falls, Mich., Emil Hurja had left home at 16, hoboed his way West. He had sampled his luck in Butte, Mont., Yakima, Wash., Fairbanks, Alaska and Seattle, worked as a grocer's delivery boy, a printer's devil, got a night post-office job while he went to school by day, studied at the University of Washington, newshawked in Alaska's mining camps. After the Oscar II interlude he went to Washington, became secretary to Charles A. Sulzer, Alaska's delegate in Congress. During the War he served in the finance division of the Army, later married a blonde girl named Gudrun Andersen, daughter of a Yukon prospector. They moved to Breckenridge, Tex., the heart of a contemporary oil boom. The night they arrived there was a little shooting and three corpses were laid out on a billiard table in one of the town's play parlors. Emil Hurja started the Breckenridge American. All his life he had been familiar with mining in Michigan, Montana and Alaska. Oil drilling was a kindred occupation and in a few years his paper gained considerable reputation in mining and oil circles. One day a New Yorker dropped in to ask him a few questions. The upshot was an invitation to go to Manhattan and work for Joseph D. Gengler, specialist in mining securities on the New York Stock Exchange.

In 1927 Hurja sold his Texas paper, took his wife to a Manhattan apartment on Riverside Drive, settled down with sheets of statistics to chart the flow of gold and oil, their output and their probable consumption.

His only adventure in politics up to that time had been his appearance as an Alaskan delegate at the 1920 Democratic convention which nominated James M. Cox and Franklin Roosevelt. In 1928 he appeared in John J. Raskob's waiting room carrying a brief case full of figures, but that Democratic National Chairman was much too preoccupied to see the hefty young amateur. Hurja's service in that campaign was limited to a few menial political jobs performed for the late Terence F. McKeever, Tammany district leader. By 1932 Hurja knew his way around Wall Street better. Among his acquaintances were such men as Bernard Mannes Baruch, Bernard ("Sell 'Em Ben") Smith and Frank C. Walker, Montana lawyer. Mr. Walker introduced Mr. Hurja and his sheets of figures to Democratic Chairman James Aloysius Farley. In June that year Mr. Hurja again served as delegate from Alaska at the national Democratic convention, continued on at Party headquarters as an aide to Mr. Farley in the statistical analysis of political trends.

Sixth Sense. Emil Hurja seemed to possess a sixth sense for predicting the regional outcomes of the 1932 election. His only notable error that year was in estimating that Roosevelt would carry Pennsylvania. In most other states his estimates of Democratic majorities were within 2,000 to 10,000 of the final results. In the eight Rocky Mountain States his forecasts were in error by an average of only 564 votes per state. When the votes were counted at the polls, he became an important man in Democratic politics. He had proved that he could count elections before they were hatched.

Yet Hurja's value to the Party consisted chiefly in keeping well out of the spotlight, leaving the speech-making to professional leather-lungs. Practically unknown to the public at large, he went home to Crystal Falls to vote in the 1934 election. A local paper sent a reporter to interview him. Although that region had always elected a Republican to Congress, Mr. Hurja told the reporter that the Democratic candidate would be elected by a majority of about 3,460 votes. His prediction was published under the headline "The Crystal Gazer from Crystal Falls." The Democratic majority was 3,017.

Staff Work. This year the political firm of Roosevelt, Farley & Co. approaches the November election in a high state of hope. The head of the firm, despite sporadic booing, remains extraordinarily popular with customers who must be resold. His health holds up as well as his glowing confidence. His campaign will be simple: "Things are getting better & better. We planned it that way. Let's have four years more of Democratic Recovery." The Party debt has been cleared away and millions of voters living on government bounty will not be allowed to forget who feeds them. And, above all, the Republicans have no one candidate now in sight who can fire the country with personal enthusiasm.

Postmaster General Farley, No. 2 man in the business of getting Franklin Roosevelt reelected, is no Mark Hanna, but he does know the practical operations of a political machine. The sophisticated may jeer at him, the righteous denounce him, but ward bosses understand his language and appreciate his friendly slap on the back.

In its propaganda department the Democratic staff wholly outranks its opponents. Until two elections ago political publicity agents were usually picked from a stale selection of hacks for whom the Press had no jobs. In 1929 Jouett Shouse hired Charles Michelson, Washington correspondent of the late New York World. Michelson raised his job to a new importance. He wrote good speeches for party bigwigs, spread masterful anti-Republican innuendoes, taught the country to hate Herbert Hoover.

Already Pressagent Michelson has begun his 1936 work. Against such an able adversary, small, pompous Theodore A. ("Ted") Huntley. secretary to Pennsylvania's onetime Senator David A. Reed, whom the Republican National Committee hired last month to run its publicity, will have to hump himself as never before to make any sort of showing at all.

Outclassed finally is the Republican high command by the Democratic intelligence service, which is 218-lb. Emil Hurja.

Technician. Behind a large desk in Washington's National Press Building sits Emil Hurja, calm, amiable, and utterly unmoved by the tides of politics. He never argues, never raises his voice. His only eloquence is a flat, staccato statement of what he considers to be fact. On the walls of his office hang twelve portraits of Andrew Jackson. The portraits are appropriate, for Emil Hurja went to Washington to apply modern business methods to political patronage. To distribute several hundred thousand jobs where they would do the most good for the Party, he established a model system of "political clearance." Instead of simply allotting jobs at the request of Congressmen, all applicants were made to bring endorsements from local Democratic leaders. These were filed in triplicate according to the name of the applicant, the type of job he wanted, the name of his sponsor. In recommending Democrats to the various bureau and department heads, Mr. Hurja used different-colored stationery which amplified the phrases of his letters. If the applicant carried a white letter, he was to be given a job if one were available. A buff letter meant that Emil Hurja was recommending him for a position. A blue letter opened every door, practically guaranteed the applicant a job.

Just as many a corporation executive has on his desk a looseleaf book in which are the latest statistics and charts of sales by product and region, of profits, of raw materials, etc., etc., so Mr. Hurja has at his elbow a compendious black volume. He can quickly turn through it to any state or subdivision. If he opens it on the 16th Congressional District of Illinois, he finds a salmon-pink chart indicating that the Congressman there is a Republican. If he were a Democrat the sheet would be white. Under the Congressman's name are the returns at the last election, the results of all polls and straw votes, public or private, taken in that district. There is the date of the primary, a line marked Chief Basis of Campaign with notations such as "Age of Opponent," "Roosevelt Policies," "Townsend Plan." Space is left for answers to such questions as: "What is the reaction to WPA?" "What is the least satisfactory Government bureau?" Finally the political background and record of the Congressman are summarized.

This information is supplemented by maps showing in blue and pink how every one of the 3,000 counties in the U. S. voted in 1934, by tables showing how every Congressman voted on New Deal bills. It is simple for Mr. Hurja to find out from these records how deserving of patronage is any politician, how badly he needs help from Party headquarters in his campaign for reelection, how much help he has given the Party in the past.

All this is not an academic pastime for Mr. Hurja. With his black book in hand he sits thumbing the pages and tells the Democratic high command: "We have this State sure--waste no effort on it." "We are certainly going to lose that State--ignore it." "Now here's a doubtful State that may be won or lost!" To Boss Farley who directs the flow of campaign funds, to the President who has a speech to make, a WPA project to announce, such advice is invaluable.

With all this detailed information at his private command, Emil Hurja probably knows better than any man in the country today the answer to the question: "What chance has Roosevelt of being beaten?"

Last week in the March American Mercury Henry Louis Mencken flayed Franklin Roosevelt, with a blistering summary of the New Deal which closed with the statement: "There was a time when the Republicans were scouring the country for a behemoth to pit against him. Now they begin to grasp the fact that if they can beat him at all, which seems most likely, they can beat him with a Chinaman, or even a Republican."

The Literary Digest last week published a supplement to its main poll on approval of the New Deal (TIME, Jan. 6), showing that of 21,600 clergymen, 70% were opposed to it. This result tended to confirm the verdict of many an oldtime politician that President Roosevelt, because he backed Repeal, tolerated two divorces in his family, goes fishing on Sunday and rarely mentions God in public, will lose considerable support from the Church next autumn.

Over the radio last week Gifford Pinchot of Pennsylvania, who was distinctly New Dealish two years ago, openly broke with Franklin Roosevelt, saying: "As a radio speaker he is a wonder. As a business executive he is a flop."

These front-page events of last week hardly stirred Emil Hurja at all. He calculates political pressure, not by the daily surge of press headlines, but by a dispassionate dipping into public sentiment far from the source of the immediate excitement. When Mr. Hurja looks in his black book, holding it close to his vest like a poker player, and says in a flat voice, "Roosevelt can lick Talmadge 4-to-1 in Florida," or "There is not a single Republican candidate who can carry his own state against Roosevelt," he is apt to be believed by non-partisan visitors.

Polls. No magic is involved in Emil Hurja's election predictions. His method is simply to avoid opinion, stick to statistical facts. Letters received by the Democratic National Committee and at the White House are all carefully cataloged by subject and place of origin, thereby giving Mr. Hurja some clues to public opinion. His main reliance is on polls, public & private, local & national. Little polling is done specially for him, but he ferrets out many polls of which the public never hears and adds them to his store of information. In former years the straw votes conducted by the Literary Digest and the Hearst Press were a great help to him, although he had to make statistical corrections allowing for the fact that certain groups of the voting population were not adequately represented. He has much faith in the house-to-house polls privately taken by bookmakers who place election bets, provided he can be sure of getting the actual returns before they are doctored up to delude the betting public.

Early last autumn Mr. Hurja made a trip to Manhattan to lunch with Dr. George Gallup. For several years Dr. Gallup had been taking polls for businessmen, particularly advertisers & publishers, who wanted to find out the preferences, buying and reading habits of the public. His method, adapted from scientific research, was to sample a section of the public big enough to be statistically accurate, representative enough to include day-laborers, skilled workers, farmers, white-collar employes, millionaires, etc. in the same proportions in which they are found in the population at large. Mr. Hurja was interested because Dr. Gallup was applying the same method of scientific sampling to the voting population in a series of political polls. Nowadays Mr. Hurja apparently places much reliance on the Gallup polls which are being syndicated in 70 newspapers as the American Institute of Public Opinion. Dr. Gallup's first poll, taken in February 1934, rated Roosevelt strength at 69% of the electorate. Subsequent ratings fluctuated, tended generally downward. Lowest rating was 50.5% last September; last rating was 53.9% two weeks ago.

Not yet is even Mr. Hurja prepared to predict the exact election results of 1936. He does claim that Roosevelt will carry every state in the South and every state west of the Mississippi. There are 531 votes in the Electoral College. A winning majority is 266. The South (excluding Maryland and West Virginia) and the area west of the Mississippi (including Minnesota) have 272 electoral votes. Therefore, argues Mr. Hurja, Roosevelt is certain of re-election and any states he carries in the Northeast will be surplusage.

Interesting point about Democrat Hurja's prediction about the South and West is that the Gallup poll, which at present is probably as accurate a sample of public sentiment as is available, appears to confirm it in general.

Since cotton and tobacco farmers are on the whole devoted to AAA, the Democratic South should certainly be solid this year. The Gallup poll shows that section of the country to be stronger than any other area for Roosevelt. Thus Mr. Hurja properly counts 146 electoral votes from 13 Southern states.

In the West he is on more questionable ground. Of the 18 states in that area, the Gallup poll classifies Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska, Iowa, North Dakota, Missouri, with 93 electoral votes, as "Definitely Democratic." Thus Mr. Hurja might compose a table:

States Votes

Sure from the South. . . . 13 146

Likely from the West . . . 13 93

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

Short of a majority: 27 votes.

All these reckonings, as Mr. Hurja well knows, are as of February 1936, not as of November 1936. If he were frankly to summarize his opponents' chances, he would probably list the six New England states, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware as the most likely pickings for Republicans. Another group, including Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, New York, West Virginia and Maryland, are open to fight. If the Republicans are to make any showing at all, these seven States must be carried. Thus Mr. Hurja might draw up a Republican table:

States Votes

New England et al. . . . . . 9 96

Debatable States. . . . . . . . 7 151

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247

Short of a majority: 19 votes.

If these two lineups should occur, the final result of the election would be determined in the remaining area where the Democrats are at present least strong, the Republicans least weak. That area, roughly bounded by the Mississippi and the Rocky Mountains, approximates the grain belt. There Kansas has 9 electoral votes, Minnesota, 11, South Dakota 4, Wisconsin 12, Wyoming 3, Colorado 6. Total: 45.

Before these States or their neighbors can turn the tide of the election, it will be necessary for Republicans first to gain much strength, to capture and consolidate much ground that is still highly debatable. This is exactly what Republicans hope that they will do when their candidate is picked at Cleveland. This, too, is exactly what Democrat Hurja & friends assume the Republicans will not be able to do, after the firm of Roosevelt, Farley & Co. really takes the field.

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