No Independence Tomorrow

President Hoover got his "Eyes & Ears" back from Manila last week. Fresh from the Philippines, tall, square-shouldered Secretary of War Patrick Jay Hurley marched into the White House and began telling his chief what he had seen and heard on the other side of the world. Three months ago "Eyes & Ears" Hurley, under presidential orders, left Washington to assay the growing Philippine independence movement at its source (TIME, Aug. 10 et seq.). Now comfortably seated before the President, one leg cocked over the other, Secretary Hurley gave his impressions:

Native sentiment for independence is politically organized and vocal, but not conclusively a majority. Opposition to independence is large, timid, unorganized. Politics is a big local industry which has outstripped economics. The islands are not yet ripe for freedom. They need economic development. It would be bad enough to turn them loose in good times but immediate independence during Depression would be their ruin.

The President nodded his head, already greying with other troubles. His War Secretary had brought him back the kind of report which squared with his own preconceptions of the Philippine problem. He instructed Mr. Hurley to put his findings into writing and submit them officially to the White House.

Next day at Cabinet meeting Secretary Hurley repeated what he had told the President. His colleagues, listening, agreed that immediate Philippine freedom was out of the question. Afterwards to the Press President Hoover made his first important statement on the Philippines. Excerpts:

"We explored the subject but formulated no conclusive policies. . . . Independence of the Philippines at some time has been directly or indirectly promised by every President and by the Congress. . . . The problem is one of time. ... Independence must be assured of durability and the government of the Philippines must be assured of stability. The economic independence of the Philippines must be attained before political independence can be successful.* Independence tomorrow would result in the collapse of Philippine government revenues and the collapse of all economic life in the islands. We propose to give further consideration to the whole subject."

In Manila the President's words were spread abroad in big black type. Politicos, more restrained than usual, pointed out hopefully that at least their far-away ruler did not say he was opposed to ultimate independence. Against his suggestion that, before freedom, the Philippines be developed economically (presumably with U. S. cash) they raised the old argument that such development would so enhance the islands' value that the U. S. could never be induced to let them go.

Undaunted by the President's statement were Republican Congressmen and Senators from beet-sugar and dairy districts who, for competitive reasons, are determined to put the Philippines' cane and coconut oil outside the tariff by granting them independence. Minnesota's Representative Harold Knutson, Insular Affairs Committee chairman and House whip,-was busily composing a "freedom bill'' last week around which his House colleagues could rally. Untouched by all the independence agitation at Manila last week was the man who stood at its centre-- Governor General Dwight Filley Davis. Tennis-loving Mr. Davis was on the verge of resigning his post after two years of service. Home with Secretary Hurley came the report that the Davis resignation was already in the President's hands, that the Governor would leave Manila this month, come to Washington, plead for its acceptance. Then he would go on to Paris to be with his wife, long invalided by arthritis.

Fussed by rumors of his homecoming, Governor Davis last week exclaimed: "No newspaper, no office holder, no office seeker is privileged to announce my plans When I get ready to take a course of action I'll say so myself." Meanwhile last week Theodore Roosevelt, Governor of Porto Rico, returned to San Juan with the confident expectation that when next he leaves his little island in the Atlantic it will be at the President's command to become Governor General of big islands in the Pacific.

*Three-quarters of Philippine foreign trade is with the U.S. duty-free. *Duties of a party whip: corral all members for important votes: arrange voting pairs for absentees: work out personal compromises for the party leader: enforce political discipline.

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